by Andrew Walden
Lingle is down 17 but Djou is down only 5 so Cook Political Report is dead wrong when it says Lingle's task is to separate herself from the national GOP. Lingle and Djou have both separated themselves to the nth degree and would suffer equally on that point. The 12 point discrepancy shows clearly there is another problem which is specific to Lingle -- that problem is furloughs.
The Lingle campaign must take furloughs on squarely and hang them around Hirono's neck. Hirono's supporters in HSTA and DoE organized furloughs as a political strike. The Lingle campaign has 30 days to tell this story with names, faces, and dates to turn this issue around.
In a one-party state, broad swathes of public opinion hang on a few sustaining myths. By turning this myth against its creators, Lingle could still pull this out.
Honolulu Magazine: Wrong on Furlough Fridays--Mazie Hirono's campaign thinks we don't remember what happened
Hawaii Senate: A Move to Lean Democrat
by Jennifer Duffy, Cook Political Report October 4, 2012
When Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka announced his retirement, Republicans hoped that an open seat might provide them with an opportunity to put a crack in Hawaii’s solidly blue political varnish. But, they also knew that there was only one Republican capable of making this a race– former Gov. Linda Lingle. They had to wait months for Lingle to decide whether to run. …
When Linda Lingle announced, we put this race into the Toss Up column, much to Democrats’ dismay. From our perspective, Lingle is a proven vote-getter who had won two statewide elections and came within 5,254 votes of winning a third. She is a moderate, who would be very hard to tag as a fire-breathing conservative. …
Lingle’s task has to been to convince voters to separate their votes for President from their votes for the Senate. With 33 days left in the race, it doesn’t appear that voters are receptive to that idea. …
The two recent polls give Mazie Hirono a healthy lead over Lingle. … A Merriman River Group (D) (IVR) survey for Honolulu Civil Beat (September 26-28 of 1,684 likely voters) gave Hirono a 55-percent to 39-percent advantage over Lingle. … Given how little time is left, Lingle would need a very big break to overcome the factors working against her.…
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Star-Adv echoes’ Cook’s wrongness, blames Lingle for being Republican: Hirono favored to beat Lingle (If Party were the problem, why does it not affect Djou? If Inouye were the problem, how would that affect polls taken before Inouye started speaking up? Duh!)