CIVIL BEAT POLL NOT CREDIBLE

News Release from www.Lingle2012.com

HONOLULU – Governor Linda Lingle’s Campaign Manager, Bob Lee, released the following statement regarding Civil Beat’s poll.

"The Civil Beat poll is just not credible. It was only two months ago that Civil Beat put out a glaringly inaccurate poll showing Ed Case winning the Democrat Primary for U.S. Senate. Their prediction was obliterated by the Election Day reality of Ed losing by almost 17 points. And, now, here they go again. It's difficult to take these new figures seriously.

"This time they try to explain away their past goofs by blaming the kind of voice they used to conduct the poll, but when they change voices they get the same bad results. Their methodology is so flawed that they get the same wrong result no matter what voice they use.

"They were substantially wrong in the Democrat Primary Election, and they will be wrong in this race by a lot. Our own internal polling is showing an incredibly competitive race with significant leads in key parts of the state and key demographics."

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CB: Pollster off by 20 Points claims Lingle Down by 16

Check this out. Its funny:

Two Voices, No Difference

CB: In the last survey before the August primary election, The Civil Beat Poll showed Hirono in a dead heat with Case, but she ended up winning by almost 20 points. In our post-mortem, we hypothesized that the use of a mainland, Caucasian voice could explain some of that disparity.

For this survey, Civil Beat used two voices to test that hypothesis. The same Caucasian woman from Ohio was used for half of the calls, and Civil Beat Assistant Editor Sara Lin, who's of Chinese and Hawaiian ancestry and was born and raised on Oahu, provided the voice for the other half.

There were some differences in the responses to the two voices, and we'll explore those differences throughout the week as we reveal the results for other general election matchups and key local issues. But the Senate race — the starting point for the experiment — showed no difference.

Hirono led 55 percent to 40 percent among those who took the poll with the "mainland" voice and 56 percent to 38 percent among those who took the poll with the "local" voice.