Prof. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - The Race for the Senate

by Larry Sabato (excerpt)

…While we still favor Republicans to take the four seats they need to win control of the upper chamber, we can also see a conceivable if unlikely path for the Democrats to retain control if the breaks go their way, especially if President Obama picks up steam in his reelection bid. Analysis of next year's 33 Senate races is below; as the election gets closer, we'll be sure to take LBJ's advice and stay on the job of keeping our readers up to speed on the latest developments….

Hawaii: As in Florida, where Connie Mack's entry into that race amounted to a big win for national Republicans, the GOP scored a recruiting coup in the Aloha State, where popular ex-Gov. Linda Lingle has joined the race for retiring Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka's seat. That said, the Democrats are still favored here. Part of the reason is that the Democratic establishment is coalescing around Rep. Mazie Hirono in her primary against ex-Rep. Ed Case; another is that President Obama should provide some hefty coattails for the Democratic nominee in his home state; and still another is that Republicans have so many good opportunities in other, more moderate states that they might not have the resources to really fight hard for their star recruit, Lingle. For all these reasons, Hawaii's Senate race remains just potentially competitive, and we are keeping our LEANS DEMOCRATIC rating.

Read … Larry Sabato