Forecasting weather five days out is an iffy business at best, but Windy.com models show Lowell barelling down on Kauai as a hurricane the night of Monday, September 7, and crossing the Garden Isle during the day Tuesday, September 8, 2026. 

This image is the forecast for 11PM HST Monday Sept 7.

The path is similar to that taken by Iniki, September 11, 1992.

INIKI 1992

According to NOAA: 

• 'Hurricane' = wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH. 
• 'Major Hurricane' = wind speed greater than 110 MPH.  

NOAA cone models differ, showing Lowell as a 'Major Hurricane' far SW of Kauai as of 5pm Monday September 7, below.

NOAA BULLETIN 5PM HST Sept 2, 2026 (UTC 0300 Sept 3 2026)
      
HURRICANE LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27                
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP122026         
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                    
0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 

LINK: Probabilities