HOUSING NEEDS GAP ANALYSIS FOR THE STATE OF HAWAIʻI
Prepared for: AARP Hawaiʻi, as a part of the Livable Communities Technical Advisors Program.
from AARP-Hawaii April, 2026
INTRODUCTION
Housing has become a critical priority for the State of Hawaiʻi. The state faces mounting pressure on housing availability, driven by a severely limited supply of affordable homes, disaster-related displacement, heightened demand, competition from the second home and vacation housing market, a constrained potable water supply, challenging development restrictions, and steadily rising housing costs.1
HOUSING IS A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR TO OUT-MIGRATION.
More people leave Hawaiʻi than move into the state. The majority of people moving away do so because of high housing costs.
By 2024, the State of Hawaiʻi’s housing affordability had reached a critical threshold: a household needed to earn 190% of the state’s median household income to afford the median-priced single-family home.2 Following a brief population inflow during the COVID-19 pandemic, the State of Hawaiʻi returned to its long-standing pattern of more population outflow to other states than inflow (or greater net domestic out-migration). Around 11,000 more residents moved to other states than moved to the State of Hawaiʻi (referred to as the net domestic outflow), with most (67%) moving to Washington State. Most of this outflow was due to high housing costs.
Land-use regulation further constrains the housing supply. According to the Wharton Residential Land Use Index, the State of Hawaiʻi ranks as the most restrictive state in the nation for land-use regulations (UHERO, 2023). The UHERO Factbook report identifies long permitting timelines, land use limitations, legislative and judicial hurdles, and affordable housing requirements as key factors limiting new development ….
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Over the last decade, the State of Hawaiʻi has seen a decline in young adult populations aged 20 to 30 years. The proportion of the population aged 20 to 30 years has declined from 15 percent to 12 percent….
The State of Hawaii has the third-worst retention of 20-30 year olds across all states. As of 2023, 48% of all 20-30 year-olds who were born in the State of Hawaii are now residents of other states. Only Alaska and Wyoming have worse retention of this age bracket. -- data from US Census American Community Survey
PDF: Hawai'i Housing Report AARP_2026 | PDF | Hawaii | American Community Survey
AP: Aging Hawaiʻi: 60,000 more housing units needed by 2050
TF: State Migration Trends: Taxes & State Population: IRS Data