Legislative District Index sizes up political leanings

by Nancy Remsen, Burlington Free Press

Matt Breuer, a 19-year-old from Essex Junction (Vermont) fresh off his first year at Yale University, has come up with a way to measure and compare the Democratic or Republican leanings of voters in legislative districts, in Vermont and any other state.

He calls his tool the Legislative District Index. Using results in legislative districts from the past three presidential elections, the two most recent gubernatorial elections and the last legislative election, he predicts margins of victory for Democratic or Republican candidates based on the districts’ political preferences.

“It is interesting information and impressive analysis,” said Morgan Daybell, executive director of the Vermont Progressive Party, although he noted it looked at the divide between only two political parties.

“I thought it was very good,” said Tayt Brooks, executive director of the Vermont Republican Party….

Not surprisingly, Breuer’s Legislative District Index confirms that Vermont is a strongly Democratic state “where everywhere you go, if you have a D next to your name it is an OK thing,” he said. “I see a lot of towns perfectly happy with the way Democrats articulate the issues.”

Given voters’ leanings in Vermont, Breuer said, “If Republicans were serious about taking control, they would consider switching things up and running more moderates.”

Breuer said Vermont Republicans had a hand in drawing the current legislative districts in the state, “but the Democratic party has performed so well in the past decade” in those districts that Democratic leaders in the Legislature have little incentive to make significant changes to the boundaries. The Legislature, dominated by Democrats, will make redistricting decisions next winter in time for the 2012 election.

Hawaii is even more Democratic than Vermont based on the seats held by Democrats in its Legislature, but Breuer said his index found a far narrower range of political preference among Hawaiian voters, meaning the Democratic tent isn’t broad. “There is not a district in Hawaii that is as liberal as Burlington or Brattleboro,” Breuer said.

“What this means for Hawaii Democrats is that voter satisfaction can shift fairly quickly, based on the popularity of those in office,” Breuer wrote in his analysis of the Hawaiian results. Also, if there are Democratic primaries for Hawaiian legislative races, he suggested the fight could become personal because the candidates likely would hold similar views on issues.

read more

LINK: The Legislative District Index

Hawaii House

Hawaii Senate