The Downmarket Impact of New Multifamily Housing: Evidence from a Honolulu Condo Tower

by Justin Tyndall, UHERO, November 20, 2025

We test whether new condominium construction generates vacancies in a local housing market through induced moves. Using detailed address-history microdata, we track households who moved into a newly built 512-unit condominium tower in Honolulu, Hawai’i, which included both market-rate and income-restricted units.

We identify prior addresses and follow vacancy chains across multiple rounds of moves.

The vacated homes were substantially cheaper than the new units and spanned diverse locations and housing types.

Income-restricted units produced fewer secondary vacancies, but those vacancies were concentrated at lower price points.

Our results show that new condominium construction eases supply constraints and expands affordability in a local housing market, and the contrast between market-rate and income-restricted units has important implications for inclusionary zoning policies.

PDF: Working Paper