2 years after disaster, Maui recovery inches forward, struggles continue

From UH News, August 5, 2025

While more Maui fire-affected residents are transitioning into permanent housing and reporting greater economic stability, many remain displaced, face high rent burdens, or continue to deal with long-term income loss. That’s according to a new report released August 5, by the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO), offering the most comprehensive look to date at how individuals and households impacted by the August 2023 Maui wildfires are faring two years into recovery.

The report, “Progress and Vulnerability Two Years After the Wildfires: A Data-Driven Update from the Maui Recovery Survey,” draws on nearly a year of monthly survey data from more than 950 fire-affected people, and highlights both hopeful developments and enduring struggles.

“Our findings show two realities unfolding side by side,” said UHERO Research Economist Daniela Bond-Smith. “Some households are finding new footing—moving into stable housing, returning to work and regaining stability. But others are still living with deep uncertainty, especially those with limited support and population groups who had already been marginalized prior to the fires.”

The survey—launched in August 2024 and still ongoing—includes people who lived, worked or owned a business in West Maui or Kula at the time of the fires. Its monthly format offers rare, near real-time insights into how recovery is progressing at the household level. Among its key findings:

• Permanent housing is steadily increasing, and the share of people in precarious housing situations has halved since late 2024.
• Median rents have started to decrease, particularly for smaller units such as studios and one-bedrooms.
• Rental assistance has helped many fire-affected households. Almost three-quarters of this group pay less rent in the second quarter of 2025 than before the wildfires. On the other hand, rent levels for those without full rental subsidies remain well above pre-fire norms, particularly for larger units.
• Full-time employment remains below pre-fire levels, and nearly 60% of households report lower income than before the fires.
• Poverty rates have nearly doubled, with almost one in four households now below the poverty line.
• Self-reported unmet needs have declined over time, especially in categories including housing, food and financial assistance.
• Fewer people are receiving assistance now compared to a year ago, which may reflect both greater economic stability for parts of the population and persisting gaps for others.

The report emphasizes that a meaningful recovery is underway, but that gaps in support and affordability risk leaving some fire-affected people behind as emergency programs wind down.

“As long-term planning continues, it’s important that decisions are guided by timely data grounded in the experiences of those most affected,” said UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham. “Our goal is to provide timely insights that reflect the evolving needs of Maui’s fire-affected communities.”

The Maui Recovery Survey will continue through at least mid-2026, with UHERO releasing bimonthly updates on the Maui Recovery Survey Dashboard.

See the entire report on UHERO’s website.

UHERO is housed in UH Mānoa’s College of Social Sciences.

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