2024 Hawaiʻi Housing Planning Study

Prepared for HHFDC by SMS Research, May, 2025  

Executive Summary Excerpts

The 2024 Hawaiʻi Housing Planning Study (HHPS) reveals a housing market in crisis, with conditions worsening for residents across all counties. In 2022, Hawaiʻi had 568,058 total housing units, with 516,242 (90.9%) available to residents (Table 2). Of these, 494,827 were occupied, leaving just 21,415 vacant and available—a mere 4.1% of the housing stock (Table 2). The remaining 51,816 units (9.1%), including 35,884 seasonal units, were unavailable, largely due to vacation rentals (Figure 3B).

Between 2017 and 2022, total units grew by 4.6% (25,103 units, Table 3), yet vacant available units dropped 20.7%, from 26,988 to 21,415 (Figure 8). This shift reflects units moving into occupied status—potentially easing supply pressure—but leaves a critically low vacancy rate, tightening the market. Despite adding nearly 48,000 housing units statewide from 2010 to 2022—an average of 4,000 new units per year—available stock for residents has shrunk. In Kaua’i County, for instance, nearly 4,900 new units built between 2010 and 2020 resulted in a net loss of 334 available units, a trend driven by a 22.3% share of units classified as unavailable in 2022 (compared to Honolulu’s 6.9%), highlighting how new construction often feeds the vacation market rather than resident needs.

Despite these supply gains, an estimated 64,490 additional units are needed through 2027 to meet current and projected demand, including for special populations like DHHL-eligible households (Table 39C), emphasizing the scale of the ongoing shortage. Of these needed units, 42,100 or 65% of the total needed through 2027 are at levels affordable for households earning 80% AMI and below.

Affordability Challenges Deepen

Hawaiʻi’s affordability crisis has deepened since the 2019 HHPS. In 2022, Hawai‘i had the nation’s highest average rents, surpassing the District of Columbia and New York.4 The 2023 two-bedroom housing hourly wage is $41.83 (Table 6)—second only to California ($42.25)—reflecting the income needed to afford a median-priced two-bedroom unit while spending no more than 30% of income on housing. Yet, renter households earn just $24.37 on average, leaving a $17.46 hourly gap, the largest in the U.S. (Table 36). Statewide, renters face higher monthly costs than homeowners, amplifying affordability challenges for those without ownership stability. Rents rose 15.5% from 2019 to 2023, outpacing wage growth and widening the affordability divide (Figure 25). As a result, 57.8% of all renters are cost-burdened, spending over 30% of income on housing, with nearly a quarter of Maui County households paying 50% or more of their income on housing (Figure 14). This growing gap drives out-migration, as families seek affordable regions, with an average of 214 residents leaving Hawaiʻi every day.

The affordability crisis is particularly acute for homeless households, many of whom are employed yet unable to secure stable housing. Among those without any disabling conditions, the rate of employment for heads of households is notably high at 62%. However, even with full-time work at Hawaiʻi’s 2022 minimum wage of $12 an hour (prior to recent increases), an individual earns approximately $24,000 annually, or $1,920 monthly. At the recommended maximum of 30% of income for housing, this leaves just $576 per month for rent—far below the state’s median rent of $1,813. This stark disparity highlights how even working homeless households struggle to afford housing, exacerbating the shortage and emphasizing the need for targeted affordable housing solutions. …

While 13,471 units are currently in development pipelines and anticipated to be available by 2027, they will address only 20.8% of the total needed units by 2027. …

Detailed analysis of housing needs by income level, tenure, and housing type (Table 39) reveals that Hawaiʻi faces both an overall housing shortage and a complex affordability crisis. Of the 64,490 total units needed, 64% are needed to house households earning 80% or less of the area median income (AMI). Over a quarter of the needed units (26.7% or 17,242 units) are for households earning 30% AMI or below. Members of this income group tend to be seniors on fixed incomes, single parents, those earning near the minimum wage, and individuals experiencing homelessness. This includes a specific need for 8,508 units to accommodate DHHL-eligible households, of which 55% are for ownership and 75% single-family units. The analysis shows particular strain in the multi-family rental market, where current supply and planned development fall significantly short of demand across lower and moderate income levels. This shortage is especially acute for households earning between 50-120% AMI—the workforce housing segment.

Between 2017 and 2022, a shift of units from 'vacant' to 'occupied' status occurred, with vacant available units dropping 20.7% from 26,988 to 21,415 (Table 3, Figure 8). The shift of units from vacant to the housing supply (vacant and available units declining 13.5% from 24,759 to 21,415), may be partly due to County-level efforts to curb illegal vacation rentals, increasing the available housing stock for residents (Section II)….

The housing crisis plays an active role in driving out-migration from Hawaiʻi, with nearly 40,000 households planning to leave the state within the next five years. Of these households, 60.8% cite housing costs as a primary reason for their decision to leave (2022-2023 Housing Demand Survey). This includes a disproportionate impact on Native Hawaiians, with 2020 Census data showing that for the first time, more Native Hawaiians now live outside Hawaiʻi (53%). This out-migration trend particularly affects Honolulu County, where 75.9% of those planning to leave currently reside—higher than its 68.4% share of the state’s households (Table 15) but consistent with its historical 81.0% average share of actual out-migration from 2017-2023 (Table 14).

The data also reveals an important market imbalance: while the greatest need exists at lower income levels, current development patterns show surpluses of units at higher income levels, particularly in the multi-family ownership category. This mismatch between housing production and actual market needs suggests that addressing Hawaiʻi’s housing crisis requires not just increasing overall supply, but fundamentally realigning development priorities with resident needs. The distribution of need varies significantly by county, with the City and County of Honolulu requiring 25,710 units, which is 6.9% of its 2022 housing stock of 373,863 units, followed by Hawaiʻi County needing 18,879 units, or 20.8% of its 90,673 units, Maui County requiring 14,987 units, or 20.5% of its 72,941 units, and Kauaʻi County needing 4,914 units, or 16.1% of its 30,476 units. These percentages reflect each county’s needed units (Table 39) as a proportion of its respective housing stock (Table 1). …

Housing Cost Burden Hits Vulnerable Households Hardest

Housing costs weigh heavily across all income levels, especially for lower-income households. Among Hawaiʻi households with computed cost burdens in 2022, only 43.6% spend 30% or less of their income on housing—the traditional “affordable” threshold—while 23.1% spend 30-50% (15.5% at 30-39%, 7.6% at 40-49%), and 20.5% face severe burden, spending over 50% (Table 5). The remaining 12.8% are uncategorized, likely due to incomplete data (e.g., zero-income households). Those earning less than $15,000 annually bear the heaviest burden, forming the largest share of severely cost-burdened households across all counties (Table 6). Hawaiʻi’s population facing housing insecurity, estimated at 208,282 households (45.7% of all households), and 27% at-risk of homelessness, further illustrates the depth of this crisis.

The demographic profile of these at-risk households reveals additional layers of vulnerability. The majority fall within the age range of 30 to 49 (45%), are almost evenly split between married (36%) and single-person households (33%), and predominantly identify as White/Caucasian (55%), with household incomes typically below $15,000 (15%). Notably, close to one-third of these households have a college degree (29%) or some college education (25%), and almost half (41%) were born and raised in Hawaiʻi. These characteristics challenge assumptions about who is at risk, highlighting that even educated, local residents face severe housing instability due to low incomes and high costs….

read … Master: HHPS Study 2024

ASD: Hawai‘i needs this many housing units by 2027 to meet demand