Rising Costs on the Horizon: How Increased Tariffs on China Will Impact Hawaiʻi’s Businesses and Local Consumers

by William Anonsen

As the Trump administration reintroduces a 10% tariff on all imports from China, businesses and consumers in Hawaiʻi are bracing for significant economic impacts. From local restaurants and retailers to construction companies and online shoppers, no sector will be left untouched by the ripple effects of these trade policies. In a state already facing high costs of living and economic challenges, the increased tariffs will make everything from food to furniture to essential goods more expensive.

For many businesses in Hawaiʻi, the reliance on just-in-time inventory, a system designed to keep supply chain costs low by ordering only what is needed—means the impact will be felt almost immediately. Take, for example, a popular poke shop in Honolulu that sources thousands of plastic takeout bowls each month from Chinese suppliers. A 10-15% price hike on packaging materials means the cost of each poke bowl could rise by at least a dollar. Customers who are already stretching their budgets will notice the change, and the restaurant owner will have to make a difficult decision: raise prices, absorb the cost, or find a cheaper alternative—if one exists.

The restaurant industry is only one of many sectors feeling the pressure. Hawaiʻi’s retail businesses, both large and small, are also scrambling to adapt. Tourists visiting Waikīkī’s bustling shops often purchase affordable suitcases, tropical-print shirts, and locally branded souvenirs—many of which are manufactured in China. A small boutique in Haleʻiwa specializing in affordable island wear may now face steeper import costs, forcing them to raise prices or find new suppliers, which could reduce product variety. Similarly, souvenir shops will struggle with higher costs for ukuleles, hula figurines, and other Hawaiian-themed trinkets, which could make shopping more expensive for both visitors and residents alike.

But the pain doesn’t stop at retail. The construction industry, already burdened by sky-high housing costs and supply chain disruptions, will be hit hard by increased costs for kitchen cabinets, flooring, and wooden doors—all commonly sourced from China. For a contractor working on a kitchen renovation in Honolulu, what was once a $4,000 cabinet order could now cost $4,500 or more. When applied across large-scale housing developments or hotel renovations, these rising material costs could delay projects, increase rent prices, and make homeownership even less attainable for local families.

For many residents, the most noticeable impact will come not from brick-and-mortar stores, but from online shopping. Hawaiʻi consumers frequently use platforms like Temu, Shein, and Alibaba Express for affordable clothing, household goods, and electronics. However, the new tariffs will also suspend the long-standing duty-free exemption for imports under $800, which means online shoppers will now face additional costs. A local college student ordering $100 worth of household essentials from Shein may suddenly find their bill 10-15% higher, making it harder to afford necessities. Even small business owners in Hawaiʻi who sell handmade crafts online will be affected, as many of their materials—beads, clasps, and packaging supplies—come from Chinese suppliers.

Meanwhile, the maritime and transportation sectors will also feel the squeeze. Though Hawaiʻi does not import large amounts of steel and aluminum, the nationwide increase in construction material costs could make it more expensive to maintain shipping containers, cargo handling equipment, and port facilities. If inter-island shipping costs rise, businesses will be forced to pass those costs onto consumers, further increasing the price of goods in grocery stores and retailers across the islands.

With the economic strain mounting, businesses are looking for solutions. Some will turn to alternative suppliers in Vietnam, Taiwan, or Mexico, but switching suppliers isn’t always easy, and new trade partners may come with higher prices or lower-quality goods. Others may try to absorb the costs for as long as possible, but profit margins are already razor-thin for many small businesses.

The bottom line? Hawaiʻi’s economy, deeply dependent on imports, will feel the brunt of these tariffs more than most mainland states. From higher menu prices at local restaurants to costlier rent due to construction delays and from pricier souvenirs to more expensive online orders, everyday life will become more costly for Hawaiʻi residents and visitors alike.

William Anonsen is the Managing Partner/Principal of The Maritime Group. Born in Norway, Bill comes from a long line of professional mariners, spending his youth growing up around the ocean and on Hawai’i’s waterfront, which has evolved into a lifelong passion.

Mr. Anonsen has worked in the maritime industry for the past 40+ years, and consults with government and private sector agencies in port development and infrastructure improvement projects, port security, terminal and vessel operations, and management.  Bill serves on the Hawaii Pacific Export Council, is a member of the Consular Corps of Hawai’i, and strongly advocates for the maritime and transportation industry, particularly in an island state that depends on a reliable, cost-effective marine transportation network.