UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Outlook more uncertain as federal policy changes loom

News Release from UHERO, December 13, 2024

Hawaii’s economic expansion continues, but slowly. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces uncertainty. Under the assumption of policy changes that are sharp but limited in scope, we will see a short-term boost to tourism and local incomes, but medium-term supply side challenges and an uptick in inflation. Maui rebuilding will add to already-buoyant construction, even as home affordability woes continue.

PDF: Forecast

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Hawaii’s economic expansion continues, but slowly. Now the incoming Trump Administration introduces broad uncertainty into the outlook. Under the assumption of policy changes that are sharp but limited in scope, we will see a short-term boost to mainland tourism and local income, but there will be medium-term supply challenges and an uptick in inflation. State tax cuts will provide local support. Maui rebuilding will add to an already-buoyant construction cycle, even as home affordability woes continue.

• Because of uncertainty surrounding Trump Administration policies—and Congressional and legal challenges—for now we are adopting policy assumptions of limited magnitude. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will be extended and the corporate tax rate will be reduced. Tariff hikes will be more limited and targeted than many expect, resulting in a five percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate. Other countries will retaliate with similar tariff hikes. Through deportations, the Administration will be able to reduce the number of unauthorized immigrants by 350,000 people per year. The policies as a whole will provide a moderate near-term US economic boost, but will result in higher inflation and slower growth in the medium term.

• Hawaii tourism, which has flattened this year, will show modest improvement in 2025, as visitor arrivals expand nearly 3%. U.S. mainland travel will strengthen, aided by federal tax cuts, but international markets may suffer from trade tensions and a stronger dollar. Tourism revenue will be constrained by stagnant per-person spending.

• Maui’s recovery continues to face challenges. Visitor numbers remain subdued, with occupancy rates at historic lows and labor force participation constrained by post-fire disruptions and outmigration. Maui has regained more than half of the jobs lost to the wildfires, but employment remains well below pre-fire levels. Rebuilding efforts will provide ongoing support, but a full tourism recovery is years down the road.

• Hawaii’s overall labor market has softened, with statewide job growth just over a half-percent this year. Job gains have been uneven across counties, with Oahu and the Big Island outpacing Maui and Kauai. With the direct negative wildfire effects now behind us, Maui job growth will turn upward in 2025, while labor market gains will slow statewide. Long-term job growth will be limited by an aging population and a slow-growing labor force.

• Construction activity remains a bright spot, supported by government contracts and Maui rebuilding efforts. At the same time, resource constraints and escalating costs are a concern for the industry. Employment in the sector will peak in early-2026 before this building cycle begins to wane.

• Housing affordability continues to deteriorate. The median price of a single-family home is up 9% statewide and 15% on Maui this year, and mortgage rates hover near 7%. Rising homeowner insurance premiums, driven in part by climate risks, are another headwind to housing affordability and housing market recovery. These challenges are compounded by slow progress in addressing Maui’s post-fire housing needs.

• Honolulu inflation remains elevated, as higher housing costs finally feed through to the consumer price index. While a slight moderation is expected in 2025, higher US tariffs and deportation actions will push inflation higher in the medium term, eroding to some extent real income gains for households.

• The outlook remains largely in line with the previous forecast, but policy uncertainty adds significant risks. Trade and immigration policies that are much harsher than we currently assume could have broader negative fallout here.

PDF: Forecast

PBN: Construction a bright spot in uncertain Hawaii economy amid Trump tariffs, UHERO says

SN: UHERO: Trump policies could bring economic uncertainty