When ending Ukraine war, Trump must not forsake Taiwan

Appeasement that leaves Russia holding Ukraine territory will embolden China to take Taiwan, raising the risk of nuclear war

by Samuel Wilder King II, Asia Times, November 14, 2024

Ending the war in Ukraine could have implications for China's next move on Taiwan. Photo: CEPA

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump famously stated he could end the war in Ukraine in a day. The public statements floated as trial balloons by “people close to Trump” in the news media suggest that President-elect Trump intends to force Ukraine to accept a peace treaty that freezes the current conflict.

This would dishonor the sacrifices made by the people of Ukraine and be a disaster for our NATO allies in Eastern Europe. It would also be a disaster for 23 million people living on the other side of the world in Taiwan. Taiwan is an island off the coast of China that was briefly governed by the same government that represented the UN member state known as China. 

However, shortly after China signed the UN Charter, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) won a civil war against Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalists who retreated to Taiwan.

Since then, the CCP has claimed Taiwan is part of China under what it calls the One-China Principle, despite the fact that Taiwan has never been controlled by the CCP and was, in fact, occupied by Japan for all of World War 2 after the Qing Dynasty ceded Taiwan to Japan after losing the Sino-Japanese War in 1895.

This complex history tied directly to the creation of Communist China has created a geopolitical nightmare in the Taiwan Strait, the 110-mile wide stretch of the Pacific Ocean separating China from Taiwan. 

Even more terrifying is the situation of small islands Taiwan controls that are mere miles off the coast of China such as Kinmen Island, where Chinese fishermen recently drowned after a CCP gray-zone warfare operation went wrong. 

In order to justify his autocratic rule of China, President-for-life Xi has whipped the latter-day nationalists into a frenzy about finishing what the CCP started during the Chinese civil war. Xi has stated that he wants the CCP’s army, the People’s Liberation Army, to be prepared to conquer Taiwan by 2027. 

Given Xi’s age and the rapid aging of Chinese society, the window for the CCP to invade Taiwan is between 2027 and 2030. In anticipation of this window, the CCP is watching to see how the Free World reacts to Russia’s blatant violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. 

If we replace Biden’s feeble strategy of not losing with a strategy of appeasement, China will know that we are not serious about defending the principles we espouse, such as democracy, freedom and self-determination. This will embolden the CCP to be more aggressive against Taiwan, creating a greater risk of conflict with the US and potential nuclear war.

The CCP’s strategy for conquering Taiwan may not involve a direct invasion at first. The CCP has noticed not only our unwillingness to defend Ukraine against naked Russian aggression but also the previous decade of Russia’s gray-zone warfare against Ukraine.

Prior to the invasion in 2022, Russia annexed Crimea by creating a fake revolt against a pro-European administration in Ukraine and invading Crimea with “little green men” who wore no insignia but, curiously, spoke Russian and poured out from the Russian naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea.

Russia had been interfering in Ukraine’s domestic politics for years before the invasion of Crimea as well. Indeed, as discussed above, the CCP is already engaging in such gray-zone warfare around Taiwan. 

China has flown aircraft into Taiwan’s Air-Defense Identification Zones with increasing frequency, conducted military drills around Taiwan to simulate a blockade of the island and fired missiles into the water on all sides of Taiwan.

China could invade Kinmen first to measure global reaction, just as Russia did with Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. China could also impose a blockade and dare the world to take action.

There is a solution, however, that the Trump administration could consider, one that would set Trump’s policies apart from the weak-kneed Biden policies of drip-drop support for Ukraine while also re-establishing deterrence against autocratic territorial expansion.

That solution is immediate, swift, and devastating NATO air strikes against Russian targets in Ukraine with the objective of driving Russia out of Ukraine, including Crimea, by the end of 2025 (before the US midterm elections). If there is one thing we have learned from Russia’s incompetent invasion of Ukraine, it is that NATO could utterly obliterate the Russian army in short order.

The principal issue holding Ukraine back from defeating Russia is a lack of air power.  Ukraine has demonstrated that it is fully capable of attacking and holding territory on the ground. What it cannot do is what NATO itself would never have done in Ukraine’s position: attack fortified artillery positions protected by landmines without first establishing air dominance.

If NATO provided said airpower, and destroyed Russian artillery positions in advance of a Ukrainian offensive, Ukraine could liberate Crimea in a matter of months.

The excuse the Biden administration always gave for withholding help that would let Ukraine win was a fear of Russian nuclear escalation. However, Biden has repeatedly crossed Russian red lines, providing more and more advanced equipment to Ukraine with no serious sign of increased Russian nuclear activity.

More importantly, making it clear that the Free World will defend democracy and the principles of self-determination enshrined in the UN Charter would significantly bolster any effort to deter the CCP from taking control of Taiwan by force.

Preventing a war over Taiwan eliminates the risk of a nuclear war with China. In the end, we can only hope the Trump administration understands that choosing the wrong means to end the war in Ukraine could set us up for a nuclear war with China over Taiwan. Any appeasement of Russia that leaves Russia holding Ukrainian territory will embolden China to invade Taiwan, greatly increasing the risk of nuclear war. The best way to avoid such an apocalypse is to ensure a swift and total victory for Ukraine.