From www.RasmussenReports.com  10-14-2010

Former Democratic Congressman Neil Abercrombie and Republican Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona are now virtually tied in the race to be Hawaii’s next governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Aloha State shows Abercrombie picking up 49% of the vote, while Aiona earns 47% support. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

These numbers move the race from Solid Democrat to a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

In late June, Abercrombie held a 58% to 32% lead over Aiona. The first survey of the race in March found Abercrombie, a congressman for nearly 20 years who stepped down to run for governor, leading Aiona 54% to 31%.

Abercrombie defeated former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann in the state's September 18 Democratic Primary to be the party's gubernatorial nominee. Aiona faced no serious opposition in the GOP Primary on the same day.

This survey of 500 Likely Voters in Hawaii was conducted on October 13, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports will release the latest numbers from Hawaii’s U.S. Senate race this weekend.

The race is proving to be surprisingly close despite Hawaii's strong Democratic leanings.

Aiona is backed by 89% of the state’s Republicans, while Abercrombie draws support from 75% of Democrats. Aiona holds a 13-point lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

In Hawaii, 10% rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 48% view it as poor. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say economic conditions are getting better, but 32% say they are getting worse.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of voters who believe the economy is improving support Abercrombie, while 75% who think the opposite prefer Aiona.

Only 14% of Hawaii voters say they are part of the Tea Party movement, lower than findings nationally.  Sixty-eight percent (68%) say they are not part of the movement, but another 18% are undecided.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of Tea Party voters give their vote to Aiona, while 61% of non-members favor Abercrombie.

Just 35% of Hawaii voters say the Tea Party movement is good for the country, while 38% see it as a bad thing.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of all Hawaii voters share a favorable opinion of Aiona, while 37% view him unfavorably. Those numbers include 33% with Very Favorable opinions and 21% with Very Unfavorable ones.

For Abercrombie, ratings are 54% favorable, 42% unfavorable, including 36% Very Favorable and 28% Very Unfavorable.

Current Republican Governor Lisa Lingle is term-limited and can’t seek reelection. Fifty-one percent (51%) approve of her performance as governor, while 48% disapprove. That’s a slight improvement from June.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only. 

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.

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