by Andrew Walden 

(UPDATE 10-6-10 10AM reflects today's release of further polling data by Daily Kos.)

The leftist Daily KOS has released results of a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling October 2 and 3 among 1326 likely voters in Hawaii's First and Second congressional districts.  The poll shows Republican Gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov Duke Aiona statistically tied with Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Rep. Neil Abercrombie.  With about a week and a half until absentee voting begins, and one month to Election Day, Abercrombie polls 49% of the vote, Aiona 47%, and 4% undecided.  The poll's margin of error is 2.7%. 

This is the first poll which show Abercrombie and Aiona within the margin of error and confirms a gaining trend for the Aiona-Finnegan ticket which Aiona campaign workers say they have been seeing in their own internal polling for weeks now.  Notably KOS shows Aiona winning the independent vote 60%-35%.

The gubernatorial polling results are all the more interesting because the KOS Poll First District results show Colleen Hanabusa in a statistical tie with Charles Djou 48% to 47%.  This sharply contradicts results of two previous polls which show Djou leading by substantial margins.  This result implies that KOS has released this poll in response to a National Democrat poll cited in the September 24 Rothenberg Political Report which showed Djou leading by “double digits”.  KOS is likely attempting to pressure National Democrats not to throw in the towel on Hanabusa’s increasingly futile effort and not to accept Abercrombie’s assurances to the National Democrats that he has the election in the bag as demonstrated by Abercrombie’s absence from the campaign trail after Primary Day. 

If a sample skewed to produce that out-of–whack polling result in the Congressional Race shows a tie in the Gubernatorial race, it may be a hint that Aiona is actually ahead of Abercrombie as voters prepare to begin casting absentee ballots.

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OVERALL RESULTS: Daily Kos/PPP Hawaii Poll

2nd CD POLL: Daily Kos/PPP HI-2 Poll

RELATED: Rothenberg: Democratic poll shows Djou ahead by double digits

POLITICAL RADAR: State of the Race

Previous Polls HFP:   

• Stacked Rasmussen poll claims Aiona does only 3% better than John Carroll (June 30) 
• Poll: Aiona beats Hannemann in one-on-one matchup (June 21) Abercrombie 46% to Aiona 43%   

Previous polls RCP:

And here is the breakdown...

OVERALL RESULTS: Daily Kos/PPP Hawaii Poll

2nd CD POLL: Daily Kos/PPP HI-2 Poll