Workers and Places Most Likely to Be Affected by a COVID-19 Recession – 2020 Study

From SmartAsset, March 26, 2020

In a survey of economists conducted by the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business at the beginning of March 2020, more than half of participants expected COVID-19 to cause a major recession. Since then, increasing numbers of economists and policy makers have predicted that coronavirus will lead to a recession, defined as a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. In fact, one of the most dire estimates came out on Friday, March 20, with Goldman Sachs predicting that the U.S. GDP will shrink by 24% in the second quarter of 2020. That decline would be two and half times larger than any previous quarterly decline, critically affecting everyday Americans’ ability to manage expenses and save for their futures.

Though a COVID-19 recession is likely to affect all Americans, despite the government’s coronavirus stimulus package, it may strain some communities more than others. In this study, we looked at workers, states and cities that are likely to be most affected by a forthcoming recession. For details on our data sources and how we put all the information together to create our final rankings, check out the Data and Methodology section below.

Key Findings

• Leisure and hospitality workers may be hit the hardest. Of industries that are most at risk during a COVID-19 recession, leisure and hospitality industries (i.e. arts, entertainment & recreation and accommodation & food services) have seen the largest immediate impacts as a result of store closures and restrictions on large gatherings of people. Leisure and hospitality industries are also expected to face continued headwinds, and as they employ the most workers of vulnerable industries, potential layoffs will affect the most people.

… More than one in four jobs in Nevada, Hawaii and Wyoming are at risk. With both Nevada’s and Hawaii’s economies relying heavily on tourism, there are high numbers of arts, entertainment & recreation workers along with accommodation & food service workers compared to the numbers in other industries in those states. Specifically, in 2018, more than 23% of Nevada’s workforce and almost 17% of Hawaii’s workforce were involved in the leisure and hospitality industries….

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