Poll: Aiona beats Hannemann in one-on-one matchup

Hawai'i Free Press

Monday, June 21, 2010

Poll: Aiona beats Hannemann in one-on-one matchup
By News Release @ 11:06 PM :: 10420 Views :: Energy, Environment

NEW SURVEY SHOWS TIGHT RACE FOR GOVERNOR

HONOLULU – Lt. Governor Duke Aiona today released the results of a recent statewide survey conducted by The Tarrance Group, one of the most widely respected and successful polling firms in the nation, which shows a statistical dead heat in the head-to-head ballot matchups between Lt. Governor Duke Aiona, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann and Neil Abercrombie in the 2010 gubernatorial campaign.

"As I have always said, whether we're up or down, the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day," Lt. Governor Duke Aiona said. "I'm going to put my support for Hawai`i's working families and small businesses front and center in this grassroots campaign, and by working together, we're going to ensure balance, integrity and accountability in state government."

The following is a memorandum from The Tarrance Group detailing the results of the statewide survey.

The Tarrance Group

MEMORANDUM

TO:          TEAM AIONA

FROM:    BRIAN C. TRINGALI
                KEVIN HUDAK

RE:          LATEST POLL SHOWS TIGHT RACE FOR GOVERNOR – EARLIER THAN EXPECTED

DATE:     JUNE 21, 2010
______________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the following findings from our latest survey of “likely” voters in Hawai`i’s race for Governor. The Tarrance Group was commissioned by the Duke Aiona for Governor campaign to conduct a telephone survey of N=600 registered voters who are likely to participate in the election this November. A random sample of this type is likely to yield a margin of error of +4.1% in 95 out of 100 cases. Responses to the survey were gathered June 13-15, 2010.

When we compare how Duke Aiona performs against either of his potential opponents in a general election for Governor, we find that in both cases the race is too close to call. Indeed, both ballot results are within the margin of error of the survey. But it is hard to ignore the fact that Duke Aiona actually leads Mufi Hannemann (+4) and is not very far behind with Neil Abercrombie (-3).

For those familiar with the typically late breaking elections that take place in Hawai`i, this positive position for the Aiona candidacy seems to have occurred early in the process. This may suggest that Democrats – at least the two candidates vying for the nomination to run against the Lieutenant Governor – are not enjoying the position of strength typically enjoyed by their political party at this juncture in the race.

Ballot Comparison

Duke Aiona	43%	Duke Aiona	43%
Undecided	11%	Undecided	18%
Neil Abercrombie	46%	Mufi Hannemann	39%
Net	-3%	Net	+4%

Unlike Linda Lingle’s first election as Governor eight short years ago, Duke Aiona is a very well known candidate. As Lieutenant Governor, 97% have heard of him. More importantly, he maintains a very positive image going into the election. Sixty-two percent (62%) are favorable toward Aiona and 27% are unfavorable.

Image Comparison

	Duke Aiona %	Mufi Hannemann %	Neil Abercrombie %
Aware	97	99	99
Favorable	62	56	54
Unfavorable	27	36	39
Ratio	2.2:1	1.6:1	1.4:1

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Honolulu Advertiser May 4, 2010: Hannemann, Abercrombie split Hawaii voters, yet both lead Aiona

Both Democrats hold solid advantages over Aiona in hypothetical match-ups in November. Abercrombie leads Aiona 49 percent to 35 percent, with 16 percent undecided. Hannemann leads Aiona 48 percent to 35 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

The poll was taken by Ward Research for The Advertiser and Hawai'i News Now among 604 likely voters statewide. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted between April 23 and April 28.