Civil Beat Poll: Djou On Way To May 22 Victory

Djou leads with 39.5 percent of the vote, followed by former Congressman Ed Case and Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who are tied at 25.5 percent, according to the poll by Aloha Vote, a Hawaii subsidiary of Merriman River Group (MRG), a Massachusetts research organization. Nearly 10 percent are undecided….

The automated telephone poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points. The poll of 1,081 likely voters was conducted on May 6 and 7.

More than half the respondents — 52.6 percent — had already voted. And of that group, Djou got 45 percent of the vote, one reason it's so difficult to imagine trends changing in any significant way between now and May 22….

Djou leads among voters who believe limiting government power or national security are the most important issues in the election. They are "through the roof" for Djou, Rosenthal said.

Hanabusa wins among voters who identify education as the most important issue, while Case wins among voters who pick energy independence and environmental protection.

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   more from the same poll…

Civil Beat Poll: Slim Majority Supports Honolulu Rail Project  (13% identify with TEA Party)

The automated-telephone poll of 1,081 likely voters in the 1st Congressional District found that 27.7 percent strongly approve of the project and 23.9 somewhat approve of it. Opposition stands at 43.8 percent, with 28.9 percent disapproving strongly and 14.9 percent disapproving somewhat. The poll conducted May 6 and 7 by Aloha Vote, a subsidiary of Merriman River Group, found that 4.7 percent of likely voters in the district were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points….

Among Democrats, 61.6 percent approve strongly or somewhat. The figure for Republicans is 36.7 percent.

Opposition among Republicans is running at 59.5 percent, while for Democrats the figure is 33.5 percent. Independents are evenly split, with 49.1 percent in favor and 49.8 percent opposed. But the feelings against the project among independents run more strongly than the feelings in favor. The percent of independents who disapprove strongly is 35.9, while the percent who approve strongly is 23.3.

The poll identified a sizable number of people, nearly 13 percent of the sample, who identified themselves as members of the Tea Party, an anti-big government movement that is shaking up the Republican Party. Among that group, 49.1 percent strongly disapprove of the project and 16.9 percent disapprove, a total of 66.1 percent against…

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