The following was released by Team Aiona today in response to the results of the latest Gubernatorial poll.

LINK>>>Advertiser HNN Poll

Aloha,

Although polls during any political season make for good entertainment and give political pundits something to talk about, any seasoned campaign veteran will tell you that polls conducted this far out from Election Day are not to be taken seriously.

Our statewide grassroots network remains far ahead of our potential opponents, and our campaign is well positioned to take advantage of an emerging wave of support that will shape the outcome of this race in November.

Below, please find a memo from the Tarrance Group, a professional polling firm that specializes in conducting opinion research and dozens of accurate polls within the complex and diverse state of Hawai’i. They have provided a summary on the hidden details contained within the Honolulu Advertiser-Hawaii News Now poll that was released today.

Sincerely,

Dutch Hanohano, Campaign Manager
John Peschong, Campaign Strategist

To: Team Aiona

From: The Tarrance Group--Brian Tringali, BJ Martino, Kevin Hudak 

Date: May 4, 2010

RE: Honolulu Advertiser Poll Misses Key Points about the Electorate and Potential Republican Strength

The recently released Honolulu Advertiser and Hawaii News Now poll conducted April 23-28 understates Republican gubernatorial candidate James “Duke” Aiona’s strength among the Hawaii electorate.  Not only do the editors fail to mention Aiona’s strong performance among his own party and Independents relative to his opponents, but the poll fails to capture the likely groundswell of support that will push Aiona to victory.

The real finding of this poll of 604 Hawaii voters is that, despite trailing Mufi Hannemann and Neil Abercrombie, Duke Aiona captures 43% of Independents against both Democrats, with another quarter of Independents remaining undecided in each race.  Further, though Aiona gains the support of 73% and 76% of Republicans in each match-up, Hannemann can rely on just 63% of Democrats and Abercrombie ticks up to just two thirds of Democrats (67%).

This poll has the race for the Democrat nomination for Governor within the margin of error.  With a competitive, divisive primary on the horizon, the Democrats’ base is likely to fracture, leaving the Aiona campaign time to cement support among Republicans and Independents, and eventually reach out to crossover Democrats frustrated with the negativity of the Democrats.

The fact remains that erosion of support for the Democrats’ nominee in inevitable especially against the organizational strength of the Aiona campaign.  besides already capitalizing on grassroots support, the Aiona campaign, like most successful Republican campaigns in the past, is structured to take advantage of the late groundswell of support as this race shapes up in the fall.  Any poll conducted before then will miss this important aspect of the Hawaii electorate.

Combining this fundamental fact of Hawaii statewide campaigns with increased Republican unity compared to a fractured Democrat base, and folding in the propensity of Independents to lean Republican demonstrated in this poll and on the mainland in Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Virginia, the Honolulu Advertiser and Hawaii News Now simply miss the point with their poll release and findings.

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