Hawaii Governor: Two Top Democrats Well Ahead of GOP’s Aiona
Friday, March 26, 2010 LINK>>>Original
www.RasmussenReports.com
Democratic candidates Neil Abercrombie and Mufi Hannemann hold double-digit leads over their likeliest Republican opponent, Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona, in Rasmussen Report’s first Election 2010 survey of Hawaii’s gubernatorial race.
A new statewide telephone survey of likely voters finds Abercrombie, a U.S. congressman for nearly 20 years, leading Aiona 54% to 31%. Only six percent (6%) of Hawaii voters prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.
Hannemann, the mayor of Honolulu, leads Aiona 50% to 29%. Given this match-up, 14% opt for another candidate, while seven percent (7%) remain undecided.
Abercrombie, who resigned from Congress last month to seek the governorship, runs slightly stronger among Democrats than Hannemann does. Both Democrats lead by 15 points among voters not affiliated with either major party.
Democrats in the state will pick their gubernatorial candidate in a September 18 primary.
Aiona faces an uphill battle in a state that is solidly Democratic in its political leanings. The state's current governor, Linda Lingle, first elected in 2002, was the first Republican to win the position since 1962. Lingle is term-limited and cannot seek reelection.
Forty-five percent of the state’s voters approve of Lingle’s job performance, but 52% disapprove. This includes 20% who Strongly Approve of the job she is doing and 32% who Strongly Disapprove.
Aiona, who served as a judge prior to his lieutenant governorship, is viewed very favorably by 15% of likely voters in Hawaii, while 19% view him very unfavorably.
Thirty percent (30%) hold a very favorable impression of Abercrombie. Sixteen percent (16%) view him very unfavorably.
Hannemann is viewed very favorably by 21% and very unfavorably by 19%.
At this early stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.
Barack Obama carried his native state over John McCain 72% to 27% in the 2008 presidential election. Now, 77% of voters in Hawaii approve of the job he is doing as president, while only 23% disapprove. Those numbers include 47% who Strongly Approve of the president’s job performance and only 19% who Strongly Disapprove. Obama’s ratings in Hawaii are much higher than his ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Hawaii was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, March 24, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence (see methodology).
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Hawaii Survey of 500 Likely Voters
March 24, 2010
Election 2010: Hawaii Governor
- Duke Aiona (R) 31%
- Neil Abercrombie (D) 54%
- Some other candidate 6%
- Not sure 9%
Election 2010: Hawaii Governor
- Duke Aiona (R) 29%
- Mufi Hannemann (D) 50%
- Some other candidate 14%
- Not sure 7%
* * * * *
Election 2010: Hawaii Senate
Hawaii Senate: Inouye 65%, Lingle 25%
Friday, March 26, 2010 LINK >>> To original
Democrat Daniel Inouye has represented Hawaii in Congress since it became a state and has served as a U.S. senator since 1963. For now at least, his reelection this November seems assured.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the Aloha State shows Inouye with a commanding lead over the state’s best-known Republican, Governor Linda Lingle, in a hypothetical Senate match-up. Inouye leads Lingle 65% to 25%. Three percent (3%) of voters prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Lingle, who is term-limited and cannot seek reelection this fall, has indicated that she will run for elected office in the future but has never publicly expressed any interest in challenging Inouye. If she makes a Senate bid, it’s more likely that she will challenge Senator Daniel Akaka in 2012.
Inouye has no announced Republican opponents at this time, and in a state as Democratic in its political leanings as Hawaii, any GOP hopeful is a long shot at best.
Democratic candidates Neil Abercrombie and Mufi Hannemann hold double-digit leads over their likeliest Republican opponent, Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona, in the race to succeed Lingle in the governor’s office.
Seventy-six percent (76%) of Hawaii voters have a favorable opinion of Inouye, including 48% who view him very favorably. Twenty percent (20%) regard the longtime senator unfavorably, with just six percent (6%) who have a very unfavorable opinion of him.
Lingle is viewed favorably by 45%, with 18% who think very favorably of her. Fifty-four percent (54%) see the governor in an unfavorable light, including 33% who view her very unfavorably.
Forty-five percent (45%) of the state’s voters approve of Lingle’s job performance, but 52% disapprove. This includes 20% who Strongly Approve of the job she is doing and 32% who Strongly Disapprove.
Indicative of the difficult playing field for Republicans is how state voters feel on several questions about the national health care plan. While most voters oppose it nationally, 66% of Hawaii voters favor the plan, including 36% who Strongly Favor it. Just 26% oppose it, with 21% who Strongly Oppose.
Sixty-eight percent (68%) favor the requirement in the plan that requires every American to obtain health insurance, while 28% oppose it. That explains why only 24% think the state should sue to prevent that requirement from becoming law. Fifty-nine percent (59%) oppose such a suit.
When it comes to health care decisions, only 26% of voters in the state fear the federal government more than private insurance companies. Fifty-eight percent (58%) fear private insurers more.
Fifty-nine percent (59%) rate President Obama’s handling of health care reform as good or excellent. Twenty-one percent (21%) say he’s done a poor job.
Obama carried his native state over John McCain 72% to 27% in the 2008 presidential election. Now, 77% of voters in Hawaii approve of the job he is doing as president, while only 23% disapprove. Those numbers include 47% who Strongly Approve of the president’s job performance and only 19% who Strongly Disapprove. Obama’s ratings in Hawaii are much higher than his ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Given these findings, it’s not surprising that voters in Hawaii don’t share the strong anti-incumbency mood found in much of the rest of the rest of the country. Hawaiian voters are evenly divided over whether it would be better for the country if most incumbents in Congress were defeated: 37% say yes, but 38% think it would be better if most were reelected.
Fifty-one percent (51%) say their local representative in Congress deserves to be reelected. Just 28% feel otherwise.
Twenty-two percent (22%) have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement, but 43% view it unfavorably. Only seven percent (7%) consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement.
Fifty percent (50%) of voters in Hawaii say the economy will be stronger one year from now. Only 27% believe it will be weaker by then, and 16% more expect it to be about the same.
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