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Monday, January 18, 2016
Hawaii Poll: Clinton, Trump Lead Races for Nomination
By Andrew Walden @ 11:24 PM :: 7120 Views :: Democratic Party, Republican Party

by Andrew Walden

This is what democracy looks like?

The Star-Advertiser/Ward Poll released Sunday January 17, 2016 gives Hawaii a glimpse of what the presidential horse-race might look like if Hawaii conducted a State-run Presidential Primary as many other states do.

But Hawaii doesn’t.  Instead voters are invited to cast their ballots in the caucuses organized by the Republican and Democratic parties.  Party-organized caucuses normally attract only about 1-2% of the registered electorate—1/20th of the turnout for Hawaii’s State-run August, 2014 Primary which attracted 41.5% of registered voters.

The Hawaii Republican Presidential Caucus is to be held at 44 locations statewide Tuesday, March 8 from 6pm to 8pm.  The result will determine the allocation of 16 of Hawaii’s 19 delegates to the Republican National Convention to be held July 18-21 in Cleveland, Ohio.

Hawaii Democrats are set to caucus Saturday March 26 (locations not yet announced) and vote in a ‘Presidential Preference Poll’ which will determine the mandate of a few of Hawaii’s 34 delegates to the July 25-28 Democrat National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Hawaii lacks party-identification of registered voters, a circumstance which aids the maintenance of the one-party Democrat-controlled status quo.  If they were participating in the caucuses—which most respondents will not--self-described Democrats would vote:

  • 52%  -- Clinton
  • 18% – Sanders
  • 6% – Trump
  • 8% -- Other Republicans
  • 1% – Will not vote
  • 15% -- Other/refused

Self-identified Republicans would vote:

  • 22% -- Trump
  • 11% – Cruz
  • 11% -- Clinton
  • 9% – Bush
  • 9% – Carson
  • 8% – Rubio
  • 4% – Christie
  • 4% -- Sanders
  • 1% -- Will not vote
  • 19% – Refused/Other

Because Caucus turnout is such a small percentage of the electorate—comprised of more highly motivated and partisan voters--refined numbers can be attained by stripping out party-crossing results and refusals. 

The result among Democrats:

  • 74% – Clinton
  • 26% – Sanders

The result among Republicans:

  • 34% – Trump
  • 17% – Cruz
  • 14% – Bush
  • 14% – Carson
  • 13% – Rubio
  • 6% – Christie
  • 2% – Fiorina

Of course all of these numbers will shift dramatically as the results come in from Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states.

---30---

SA: Clinton enjoys large lead in Hawaii presidential poll

PDF: Hawaii Poll — Presidential Race

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