Congressional Quarterly runs down the Congressional races.  Here's what they said about the race in Hawaii CD1....

LINK to full article: Hawaii’s 1st District (Oahu — Honolulu, Waipahu, Pearl City)

Incumbent: Neil Abercrombie , D (retiring to run for governor)

Now: Likely Democratic

Was: Safe Democratic

Republicans’ hopes for a big upset win — in a Honolulu-based district that rarely elects Republicans — hinge on the possibility of a divisive Democratic primary and the successful recruitment of a strong GOP candidate in Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou.

Ed Case, a Democrat who formerly represented the neighboring 2nd District, announced last March that he would run for the seat left open by longtime incumbent Abercrombie. But Case, who shortened his previous House tenure by staging an unsuccessful 2006 primary challenge to Sen. Daniel K. Akaka , only raised $169,000 through Sept. 30 for his 2010 1st District bid.

His top primary opponent is state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa, who announced her candidacy in October. Hanabusa, who twice sought the 2nd District seat, is backed by the Democratic feminist powerhouse EMILY’s List and will likely be a formidable candidate. And with a mid-September primary, party officials have to worry about a divisive Democratic contest that would leave the survivor little time to recover.

What’s more, Republicans have their best candidate in a decade running for this seat. Djou has been fundraising for this race since early 2008, when it was correctly rumored that Abercrombie would leave his House seat open to run for governor. National Republicans already have taken note of Djou and aired advertisements in the heavily Democratic district. — Shira Toeplitz

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