Governors 2014: Where Politics Really Is Local

by Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor, Sabato's Crystal Ball, February 20, 2014 (excerpt)

On the Democratic side, keep an eye on Hawaii, where a surprising poll result showed Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) trailing former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R). Abercrombie beat Aiona by 17 points in 2010. We’ve gone back and forth on this race over the cycle, weighing Abercrombie’s unpopularity versus the state’s partisan lean: In addition to being heavily Democratic at the federal level, Democrats will have governed the Aloha State for 44 of the 55 years of the state’s existence assuming that Abercrombie serves out the rest of his current term. But Abercrombie, who has irritated enough Democrats to spawn a primary challenge from state Sen. David Ige (D), might kick his office away. We’re moving this race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic.

Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings changes

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