Initial Governor Race Ratings 02/2014

by Stephen Wolf, Daily KOS, February 5, 2014 (excerpt)

Following up on my recent first quarter race ratings for the US Senate and House are the ratings for the 36 gubernatorial contests taking place in 2014. Each rating represents the probability that either party will win the November election and uses the following scale:

Safe - That party has over a 95 percent percent chance of winning. The other party has no realistic options for victory under present or expected circumstances….

Safe Democratic…

Hawaii - Neal Abercrombie - (D)

Abercrombie was regarded as vulnerable and deeply unpopular all throughout the beginning of his term thanks to terrible poll numbers, but more than any state in the nation Hawaii polling is horrendous. Abercrombie had close poll numbers late in 2010 and won by a 17 percent blowout. Now-senator Mazie Hirono had competitive polling numbers early on in the 2012 cycle and won by a 25 point rout. For whatever reason, pollsters dramatically understate Democratic chances here and Hawaii is already one of if not the most Democratic states in the union. With retread opposition and the wind at his back, don't be surprised at yet another landslide win for Abercrombie….

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