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Wednesday, October 06, 2010
KOS Poll UPDATE: Aiona, Abercrombie statistically tied
By Andrew Walden @ 12:48 AM :: 10370 Views :: Maui County, Education K-12, Energy, Environment, National News, Ethics

by Andrew Walden 

(UPDATE 10-6-10 10AM reflects today's release of further polling data by Daily Kos.)

The leftist Daily KOS has released results of a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling October 2 and 3 among 1326 likely voters in Hawaii's First and Second congressional districts.  The poll shows Republican Gubernatorial candidate Lt. Gov Duke Aiona statistically tied with Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Rep. Neil Abercrombie.  With about a week and a half until absentee voting begins, and one month to Election Day, Abercrombie polls 49% of the vote, Aiona 47%, and 4% undecided.  The poll's margin of error is 2.7%

This is the first poll which show Abercrombie and Aiona within the margin of error and confirms a gaining trend for the Aiona-Finnegan ticket which Aiona campaign workers say they have been seeing in their own internal polling for weeks now.  Notably KOS shows Aiona winning the independent vote 60%-35%.

The gubernatorial polling results are all the more interesting because the KOS Poll First District results show Colleen Hanabusa in a statistical tie with Charles Djou 48% to 47%.  This sharply contradicts results of two previous polls which show Djou leading by substantial margins.  This result implies that KOS has released this poll in response to a National Democrat poll cited in the September 24 Rothenberg Political Report which showed Djou leading by “double digits”.  KOS is likely attempting to pressure National Democrats not to throw in the towel on Hanabusa’s increasingly futile effort and not to accept Abercrombie’s assurances to the National Democrats that he has the election in the bag as demonstrated by Abercrombie’s absence from the campaign trail after Primary Day. 

If a sample skewed to produce that out-of–whack polling result in the Congressional Race shows a tie in the Gubernatorial race, it may be a hint that Aiona is actually ahead of Abercrombie as voters prepare to begin casting absentee ballots.

---30---

OVERALL RESULTS: Daily Kos/PPP Hawaii Poll

2nd CD POLL: Daily Kos/PPP HI-2 Poll

RELATED: Rothenberg: Democratic poll shows Djou ahead by double digits

POLITICAL RADAR: State of the Race

Previous Polls HFP:   

Previous polls RCP:

 
Honolulu Star-Advertiser 8/10 - 8/17 604 LV 53 41 Abercrombie +12
Rasmussen Reports 6/24 - 6/24 500 LV 58 32 Abercrombie +26
Honolulu Advertiser 4/23 - 4/28 604 LV 49 35 Abercrombie +14
Rasmussen Reports 3/24 - 3/24 500 LV 54 31 Abercrombie +23
Mason-Dixon 1/8 - 1/12 800 RV 43 34 Abercrombie +9

 

And here is the breakdown...

Daily Kos/PPP HI-1 Poll

Public Policy Polling, 643 Likely Voters, MoE 3.9%, Oct 2, 2010 - Oct 3, 2010. 

The candidates for US House are Democrat Colleen Hanabusa and Republican Charles Djou. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

  Colleen Hanabusa Charles Djou Undecided
All 48 47 5
Women 50 43 6
Men 44 52 4
McCain Voters 6 92 2
Obama Voters 75 20 5
Someone else/Don't remember 34 49 16
Democrat 79 17 4
Republican 13 84 3
Independent/Other 31 61 7
Liberal 83 16 2
Moderate 49 44 7
Conservative 20 74 5
White 45 52 4
Asian 50 45 5
Hispanic 54 43 4
Native Hawaiian 46 44 10
Other 47 47 7
18 to 29 52 45 3
30 to 45 43 54 3
46 to 65 50 45 5
Older than 65 47 46 7

The candidates for Governor are Democrat Neil Abercrombie and Republican Duke Aiona. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

  Neil Abercrombie Duke Aiona Undecided
All 48 48 4
Women 50 45 5
Men 45 52 3
McCain Voters 9 89 2
Obama Voters 73 23 3
Someone else/Don't remember 37 47 16
Democrat 78 18 5
Republican 11 86 3
Independent/Other 34 62 4
Liberal 86 12 3
Moderate 46 50 4
Conservative 23 72 5
White 48 49 3
Asian 47 47 6
Hispanic 74 26 -
Native Hawaiian 41 55 4
Other 47 51 2
18 to 29 59 41 -
30 to 45 40 55 4
46 to 65 49 47 4
Older than 65 48 48 4

The candidates for US Senate are Democrat Daniel Inouye and Republican Cam Cavasso. If the election was today, who would you vote for?

  Daniel Inouye Cam Cavasso Undecided
All 66 28 6
Women 69 24 7
Men 62 32 6
McCain Voters 31 61 8
Obama Voters 86 9 5
Someone else/Don't remember 68 23 9
Democrat 89 7 4
Republican 32 61 7
Independent/Other 59 33 8
Liberal 93 4 3
Moderate 70 24 6
Conservative 41 50 9
White 53 41 6
Asian 75 17 8
Hispanic 71 29 -
Native Hawaiian 66 27 7
Other 62 35 3
18 to 29 72 24 3
30 to 45 63 29 7
46 to 65 69 27 4
Older than 65 61 30 9

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Colleen Hanabusa?

  Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
All 46 40 14
Women 48 36 16
Men 44 45 11
McCain Voters 9 78 13
Obama Voters 71 17 12
Someone else/Don't remember 30 44 26
Democrat 74 16 11
Republican 12 71 17
Independent/Other 33 51 16
Liberal 79 15 5
Moderate 47 36 17
Conservative 20 64 16
White 43 47 10
Asian 47 35 18
Hispanic 54 43 4
Native Hawaiian 47 41 12
Other 47 43 10
18 to 29 41 41 17
30 to 45 46 47 7
46 to 65 47 39 13
Older than 65 45 36 19

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Charles Djou?

  Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
All 50 40 10
Women 47 40 14
Men 54 39 7
McCain Voters 88 9 3
Obama Voters 27 61 13
Someone else/Don't remember 51 24 24
Democrat 24 61 15
Republican 82 12 5
Independent/Other 62 30 8
Liberal 25 64 11
Moderate 47 43 10
Conservative 73 17 10
White 54 41 5
Asian 50 37 13
Hispanic 50 37 13
Native Hawaiian 41 41 19
Other 46 48 6
18 to 29 52 34 14
30 to 45 51 40 9
46 to 65 48 44 8
Older than 65 51 36 13

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Neil Abercrombie?

  Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
All 50 40 10
Women 51 37 12
Men 48 44 8
McCain Voters 12 78 10
Obama Voters 74 18 9
Someone else/Don't remember 42 38 20
Democrat 76 14 10
Republican 17 71 12
Independent/Other 37 53 9
Liberal 84 12 3
Moderate 50 41 9
Conservative 24 59 16
White 50 42 8
Asian 49 38 13
Hispanic 66 34 -
Native Hawaiian 42 50 9
Other 55 37 8
18 to 29 62 38 -
30 to 45 38 51 10
46 to 65 51 38 11
Older than 65 52 36 13

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Duke Aiona?

  Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
All 53 37 10
Women 51 37 12
Men 55 36 8
McCain Voters 86 8 6
Obama Voters 33 56 12
Someone else/Don't remember 51 31 18
Democrat 28 59 14
Republican 86 8 6
Independent/Other 63 28 9
Liberal 20 73 7
Moderate 54 34 11
Conservative 74 15 11
White 53 37 11
Asian 52 37 12
Hispanic 33 67 -
Native Hawaiian 64 26 10
Other 52 42 7
18 to 29 48 45 7
30 to 45 53 37 10
46 to 65 52 37 11
Older than 65 55 34 11

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Daniel Inouye?

  Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
All 67 23 11
Women 67 22 12
Men 67 24 9
McCain Voters 44 44 12
Obama Voters 80 11 9
Someone else/Don't remember 67 17 16
Democrat 84 10 6
Republican 44 41 15
Independent/Other 60 27 13
Liberal 85 7 8
Moderate 70 22 8
Conservative 49 35 16
White 55 35 9
Asian 76 14 10
Hispanic 87 13 -
Native Hawaiian 65 22 13
Other 60 25 15
18 to 29 66 21 14
30 to 45 68 19 13
46 to 65 70 23 8
Older than 65 62 26 11

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cam Cavasso?

  Favorable Unfavorable Not sure
All 27 35 38
Women 23 36 41
Men 32 33 35
McCain Voters 52 15 34
Obama Voters 12 49 39
Someone else/Don't remember 29 20 51
Democrat 12 51 36
Republican 55 16 29
Independent/Other 29 25 46
Liberal 11 53 36
Moderate 22 36 42
Conservative 47 18 34
White 36 28 36
Asian 20 38 42
Hispanic 29 31 40
Native Hawaiian 33 39 29
Other 28 35 37
18 to 29 34 34 31
30 to 45 28 31 41
46 to 65 26 38 36
Older than 65 26 33 40

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama's job performance?

  Approve Disapprove Not sure
All 51 38 11
Women 55 33 12
Men 47 43 10
McCain Voters 9 83 8
Obama Voters 80 10 10
Someone else/Don't remember 35 36 29
Democrat 78 11 11
Republican 15 78 7
Independent/Other 41 45 14
Liberal 87 9 5
Moderate 55 34 11
Conservative 21 64 15
White 46 46 8
Asian 55 30 15
Hispanic 54 37 9
Native Hawaiian 45 40 15
Other 55 42 2
18 to 29 48 41 10
30 to 45 46 40 15
46 to 65 55 36 9
Older than 65 52 37 11

Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Linda Lingle’s job performance?

  Approve Disapprove Not sure
All 50 41 9
Women 45 44 10
Men 55 38 7
McCain Voters 84 13 2
Obama Voters 29 62 10
Someone else/Don't remember 51 23 26
Democrat 27 62 11
Republican 82 14 4
Independent/Other 58 33 9
Liberal 23 68 9
Moderate 49 44 7
Conservative 70 19 11
White 51 42 6
Asian 45 44 11
Hispanic 52 27 20
Native Hawaiian 61 31 8
Other 54 41 5
18 to 29 55 31 14
30 to 45 55 34 10
46 to 65 47 47 6
Older than 65 49 42 9

Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Daniel Akaka’s job performance?

  Approve Disapprove Not sure
All 48 34 18
Women 52 28 20
Men 44 40 15
McCain Voters 19 62 19
Obama Voters 68 18 14
Someone else/Don't remember 36 24 40
Democrat 70 15 14
Republican 22 55 22
Independent/Other 37 43 19
Liberal 72 14 14
Moderate 50 34 16
Conservative 28 48 23
White 34 48 18
Asian 55 25 20
Hispanic 63 37 -
Native Hawaiian 58 24 18
Other 50 36 14
18 to 29 62 34 3
30 to 45 43 35 22
46 to 65 45 35 19
Older than 65 51 31 18

OVERALL RESULTS: Daily Kos/PPP Hawaii Poll

2nd CD POLL: Daily Kos/PPP HI-2 Poll

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