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Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Stacked Rasmussen poll claims Aiona does only 3% better than John Carroll
By News Release @ 11:00 PM :: 6673 Views :: Energy, Environment, National News, Ethics

(Tarrance Group came out with a poll June 21 showing Aiona in the lead over Hannemann.  So Rasmussen paired questions about Aiona with questions about no-name GOP candidates such as John Roco running against Inouye in a June 24 poll.  This linkage with no-name candidates—especially in a robo-call format--creates a pattern in the answers and depresses the Aiona numbers, thus stacking the poll and giving the Democrat Case family mouthpiece the results it wants.)

Hawaii Governor: Democrats Remain Far Ahead

June 30, 2010  LINK>>>Rasmussen

Former Congressman Neil Abercrombie continues to run slightly stronger than fellow Democrat Mufi Hannemann, but both are well ahead of their Republican foes in Hawaii’s race for governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Hawaii shows Abercrombie with 58% support versus Republican Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona who picks up 32% of the vote. (26% spread) Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

This match-up is little changed from the only previous Rasmussen Reports survey of the contest in March when Abercrombie, a congressman for nearly 20 years who stepped down to run for governor, led Aiona 54% to 31%.  

Similarly unchanged is the contest between Hannemann, the mayor of Honolulu, who now earns 52% of the vote when pitted against Aiona, who wins 30% support. Nine percent (9%) favor some other candidate, and another nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Hannemann held a 50% to 29% lead in the previous survey.

The Democrats’ numbers edge up only slightly if John Carroll, who unsuccessfully challenged current Governor Linda Lingle for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in 2002, is the Republican in the race.

Abercrombie leads Carroll, who formally entered the race last week, 59% to 30%.  (29% spread) Ten percent (10%) like another candidate or are undecided.

Hannemann holds a 57% to 23% lead over Carroll. Given that matchup, one-in-five voters (20%) have another choice in mind or are undecided.

Both parties will pick their gubernatorial candidates in September 18 primaries.

This survey of 500 Likely Voters in Hawaii was conducted on June 24, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.  Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLCSee methodology.

Democratic Senator Daniel Inouye holds a better than three-to-one lead over his only announced Republican opponent in Hawaii’s U.S. Senate race.

Voters remain closely divided in their views of the current Republican governor, and, given the state’s strong Democratic tendencies, both GOP candidates face an uphill struggle.

Just 43% of voters in Hawaii, for example, favor repeal of the national health care bill, well below support for repeal nationally. Forty-nine percent (49%) oppose repeal. This includes 31% who Strongly Favor repeal of the bill and 36% who are Strongly Opposed.

The Republicans carry voters who Strongly Favor repeal, while both Democrats run well among those who are Strongly Opposed.

Only 37% of all voters in the state favor passage of a tough immigration law like Arizona’s in Hawaii, compared to 55% of voters nationwide. Thirty-nine percent (39%) oppose such a law in their state, while another 24% are not sure.

Aiona carries more than 60% of the vote of those who favor an Arizona-like law. Carroll performs a little less strongly among this group. Abercrombie earns nearly 90% support from those who oppose the law, while Hannemann’s support in this group is around 70%.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Aloha State voters like the chief requirement of the Arizona law that local police check the immigration status of anyone they stop for a traffic violation or some other kind of violation if they suspect that person is an illegal immigrant. Thirty-five percent (35%) oppose that requirement. Thirteen percent (13%) more are not sure about it.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of all voters in Hawaii have a Very Favorable opinion of Abercrombie, while 22% view him Very Unfavorably.

For Hannemann, Very Favorables are 25% and Very Unfavorables 16%.

Aiona is viewed Very Favorably 22% and Very Unfavorably by 21%.

Carroll earns Very Favorables of four percent (4%) and Very Unfavorables of 16%. He is by far the least well-known of the candidates.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Lingle is term-limited and can’t seek reelection. Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of her performance as governor, while 51% disapprove. This, too, is basically unchanged from March.

---30---

Here is the recent Tarrance Group Poll which the Advertiser commissioned this to respond to: Poll: Aiona beats Hannemann in one-on-one matchup

REALITY: More Case family media manipulation

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