MEMO: From Hirono Pollster

To: Interested Parties

Fr: Pete Brodnitz

Date: October 2, 2012

Re: Recent Polling Results

The results of our recent poll of likely general election voters in Hawaii show that with just over a month until Election Day Congresswoman Mazie Hirono holds a 17-point lead over former Governor Linda Lingle and comfortably receives over 50% of the vote. BSG polling accurately predicted Mazie Hirono’s 17% victory margin over Ed Case in the Democratic Primary.

Hirono Expands Lead; Holds Majority

In the race for U.S. Senate, Hirono leads Lingle by 17%. Hirono receives a majority of the vote (54%), while Lingle receives 37%, 1% volunteer another candidate, and 9% are undecided. When we push undecided voters to express a preference, Hirono’s lead increases to 18%. Hirono has more definite supporters (42%) than Lingle has total supporters (37%). Hirono’s current lead represents an increase from her 11% advantage in our July survey.

“If the November general election for Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Mazie Hirono and Republican Linda Lingle, for whom would you vote? (If don’t know) Which candidate do you lean toward? (If support a candidate) Will you definitely vote for Hirono/Lingle or probably vote for Hirono/Lingle?”

	All
Difference	17
Democrat Mazie Hirono	54
· Definitely Vote	42
· Probably Vote	12
Republican Linda Lingle	37
· Definitely Vote	26
· Probably Vote	11
Other (vol.)	1
Don’t Know	9
Difference	18
Democrat Mazie Hirono w/leaners	56
Republican Linda Lingle w/leaners	38
Other w/leaners	1
Don’t Know w/leaners	5

Voters Believe Lingle Would Help The Republicans Gain a Majority in the Senate

By more than 2-to-1, voters are more likely to believe that Lingle would be a vote for the Republican agenda in Washington than think she will be Independent.

Which of the following better describes Linda Lingle?
	All
Difference	+31
If elected, she will be a vote for the Republican agenda in Washington.	60
If elected, she will be independent of the Republican Party in Washington	29
Don’t Know	11

Voters Say Lingle Is Running A Negative Campaign; Prefer Hirono On Key Attributes

Voters give Hirono an advantage over Lingle on a number of different attributes, including education, standing up for the middle class, and understanding their challenges. By 45% to 20%, voters in Hawaii think Lingle is running a negative campaign.

Which candidate would you say this phrase applies to more?
	Hirono				Don’t Know (vol.)	Difference (Hirono – Lingle)
			Both (vol.)	Neither (vol.)
		Lingle
Will improve and expand access to education	55	27	3	5	10	+28
Will stand up for the middle class	58	32	3	2	5	+26
Understands the challenges facing people like you	50	36	3	4	7	+14
Is running a negative campaign	20	45	12	11	13	-25

This memo covers the results of our research: 600 interviews with likely 2012 general election voters in Hawaii. All participants were registered to vote, had voted in the 2008 or 2010 general election or registered after the 2010 election, and were screened to ensure they are likely to vote in the 2012 election. The interviews were conducted September 18-20, 2012, with live callers. The margin of error is ±4.0%.

BSG’s clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jeff Merkley (OR), Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and President Juan Manuel Santos of Colombia. Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work helping turn Virginia from Red to Purple. BSG’s final poll of the 2012 Democratic primary election accurately predicted a 17-point