UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Hawaii in the Asia-Pacific Century

From UHERO, December 2, 2011

The Asia-Pacific region will see further incremental slowing in the near term, due to headwinds from struggling Western economies. Longer term, several key trends will shape the pattern of growth in the region, including lingering aftereffects of the Japanese quake, population aging in Korea and other Asian economies, the vulnerability of emerging countries to developed economy shocks, and the challenge China faces in moving to a consumer society. These issues will have implications for Hawaii tourism and for local policymaking in coming years.

This report represents the first UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast, a regionally focused report that replaces the broader Global Forecast we have prepared in past years. The Asia-Pacific Forecast reviews conditions and prospects for key countries within the region. For this maiden edition, we have also enlisted the help of an international team of scholars to provide expert analysis of key longer-term issues for regional economies and Hawaii.

LINK: public summary

LINK: UHERO Announcement

Distributed to Media: UHERO Asia Pacific

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CB: Economists: Asia-Pacific Recovery Good News for Hawaii Tourism

MN: Hawaii’s Economy in “Pause Mode”

Seats on the Seoul-to-Honolulu flights are up 78% from a year ago, likewise Australia traffic is up 28% and Canada arrivals are up 21%. Visitor arrivals from these markets are up a combined 18% for year through September.

That said, the bad news is there isn’t any other good news.

Hawaii shares with the mainland a stagnant labor market, lagging construction, and limited growth in personal income. “Our forecast,” said UHERO, “is for gains as we move into 2012, but not at a pace that will lead to rapid improvement in economic conditions.

“Most worrisome has been the steady decline in visitors from the US mainland.”