Thursday, November 21, 2024
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Wednesday, May 8, 2019
No, Honolulu’s beaches aren’t going to disappear in 20 years
By Selected News Articles @ 2:40 PM :: 5821 Views :: Environment

Another climate lie bites the dust – No, Honolulu’s beaches aren’t going to disappear in 20 years

by Anthony Watts, WattsUpWithThat,  April 25, 2019

Excerpts of the Business Insider article by Aylin Woodward

Hawaii’s iconic Waikiki Beach could be engulfed by the ocean in 20 years — here’s the plan to save it

In May 2017, high tides engulfed parts of the iconic Waikiki beach, edging dangerously close to waterfront hotels. This kind of high-tide flooding, often called a king tide or sunny-day flood, occurs when ocean water surges to higher levels than coastal infrastructure was designed to accommodate. In that case, water levels rose 2.5 feet above average in Waikiki, drowning nearby roads and sidewalks.

According to a 2017 report (which was updated in September 2018), Hawaii’s state capital and Waikiki Beach – along with other coastal strips on Hawaii’s five islands – are expected to experience frequent flooding within 15 to 20 years.

“This flooding will threaten $5 billion of taxable real estate; flood nearly 30 miles of roadway; and impact pedestrians, commercial and recreation activities, tourism, transportation, and infrastructure,” Shellie Habel, lead author of the 2017 study, said in a release.

Now, Hawaii state lawmakers are taking steps to shore up the state’s beaches and coastal cities. A new bill that mandates a statewide shore protection program has passed both houses of Hawaii’s state legislature, and will soon makes its way to the governor’s desk for approval.

All well and good that they want to improve beach resilience. But, the claim that ” Hawaii’s iconic Waikiki Beach could be engulfed by the ocean in 20 years ” is totally bogus.

Here is why:

First, lets look at real world data (as opposed to model projections).

Source:  NOAA

According to the official NOAA data, there is a 1.49mm per year sea level trend extending back to the year 1900.

According to elevation data via Google Earth the top of Waikiki Beach is about 8 feet above the mean sea level there.

8 feet = 2438.4 millimeters

…at a rise rate of 1.49mm/year based on the NOAA sea level rise rate we have:

2438.4 mm / 1.49 mm/year = 1636.5 years

In 20 years, sea level would have advanced only

1.49 mm/year x 20 years = 29.8 mm or 0.098 feet

Once again, reporters can’t do basic math, but they sure can exaggerate.

Next, let’s look at the 2017 Report they cited as “having passed peer review”, from the methodology section:

Modeling, using the best available data and methods, was conducted to determine the potential future exposure of each island to multiple coastal hazards as a result of sea level rise. Three chronic flooding hazards were modeled: passive “bathtub” flooding, annual high wave flooding, and coastal erosion. The footprints of these three hazards were combined to define the projected extent of chronic flooding due to sea level rise, called the sea level rise exposure area (SLR-XA). Not all hazards were modeled for each island due to limited historical information and geospatial data. Each of these hazards were modeled for four future sea level rise scenarios: 0.5 feet, 1.1 feet, 2.0 feet and 3.2 feet based on the upper end of the IPCC, Assessment Report 5, representative concentration pathway 8.5, or “business as usual” sea level rise scenario.

Even with 3.2 feet of projected sea level rise, the threat when viewed in terms of real-world data is many years away:

3.2 feet = 975.36mm 975.36mm/1.49 mm/yr = 654.6 years.

As anybody in the climate business knows, RCP8.5 is a ridiculous “worse than worst case” climate model that has no real-world counterpart. Only politicians and low information journalists give it any credence.

The follow of this entire thing is that they’d rather look at model data, than the real-world data. But then again, you can’t get grants for stuff that will happen 600 to 1000 years in the future, can you?

Links

TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote

2aHawaii

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

AntiPlanner

Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii

FIRE

Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Habele.org

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii Military History

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Together

HiFiCo

Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

July 4 in Hawaii

Land and Power in Hawaii

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

MentalIllnessPolicy.org

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

Natatorium.org

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Obookiah

OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

Practical Policy Institute of Hawaii

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

RailRipoff.com

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

School Choice in Hawaii

SenatorFong.com

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

Waagey.org

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii