Poll Shows Hawaii Special Election in a Dead Heat

By Shira Toeplitz Roll Call April 16, 2010

The May 22 special election to replace former Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) is in a dead heat, according to a new survey from Daily Kos and Research 2000.

The poll showed Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) with 32 percent, former Rep. Ed Case (D) with 29 percent and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa (D) with 28 percent. The survey found 7 percent of respondents were undecided in the winner-take-all vote-by-mail special election.

Although President Barack Obama won the district where he grew up with 70 percent in 2008, the dynamics of this special contest are unpredictable. Not only is this the first time that Hawaii has used an all-mail ballot system for a Congressional race, but also polling in Hawaii is notoriously unpredictable for several reasons. And because there are two Democrats running and presumably splitting the party’s vote, the GOP has an increased likelihood of picking up the seat.

The poll took the opinion of 500 likely voters from April 11-14 and had a margin of error of 4.5 points — a margin larger that Djou’s lead over either candidate.

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RECENT National Coverage:

• ABC News: House Dem Campaign Chief: Hawaii's Intra-Party Battle 'Complicates Things'
• POLITICO: Hawaii special has Dems in knots
• CQ Politics: Hawaii’s Polling Pitfalls  (Dan Boylan, father of Inouye spokesperson Peter Boylan, provides twisted, hilarious arguments for why all the undecided voters are really Hanabusa voters.  And all the while the interviewer acts as if Boylan were an objective observer.)

Leftist poll sponsor Markos Moulitsas Zúñiga of Daily KOS tries to spin it:

“Just got poll results back from HI-01. It's essentially a three-way tie. Flip a coin! A, uh, three-sided coin.”

DePledge ADV: Buy In  Democrats getting desperate, pouring money into media buys, advertising for workers on Craigslist.  The more they spend, the more Djou's lead opens up . . . .