The State-by-State Impact on Jobs and Family Incomes of the House GOP Blueprint

by Scott A. Hodge, Tax Foundation, April 11, 2017 

There have been a raft of studies recently isolating the effect of certain elements of the House GOP tax reform “Blueprint” on various industries and even the 50 states. While it is understandable that interest groups whose business models are tied to a particular provision of the tax code would wish to draw attention to how a specific element of the Blueprint would impact them, it is also important for lawmakers who are subject to a heavy dose of lobbying to recognize that the Blueprint is a comprehensive tax reform plan, so it is important to focus on the total effects of the plan on the economy and families.

Using the Tax Foundation’s Taxes and Growth (TAG) macroeconomic tax model, our analysis found that the “plan would significantly reduce the cost of capital and reduce the marginal tax rate on labor. These changes in the incentives to work and invest would greatly increase the U.S. economy’s size in the long run, boost wages, and result in more full-time equivalent jobs.”

Indeed, the TAG model estimates that the plan would result in the creation of roughly 1.7 million new full-time equivalent jobs, while increasing the after-tax incomes of median households by 8.7 percent. The increase in family incomes is the result of both the income tax cuts and the broader rise in productivity and wages due to economic growth. These estimates take into account all aspects of the Blueprint, including the impact of the border adjustment.

The table below illustrates the state-by-state impact of the plan for both new jobs and the boost to after-tax incomes for middle-income families.