UHERO State Forecast Update: As Growth Ebbs, Risks Swell

From UHERO, March 3, 2017

After seven years of sustained growth in the Islands, deceleration is now underway. In part this stems from the slowing pace of construction industry expansion. But it also reflects a generalized slowing as demand growth eases and labor markets tighten. Tourism has kept up a record-breaking pace longer than expected; still, there will only be room for so much additional growth. The economic outlook remains generally positive, if clouded by the many things that could go wrong in Washington or closer to home.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

Report highlights

• Tourism growing despite limited capacity
• Prospects good for Hawaiʻi workers
• Construction will hover near all-time highs
• Home prices driving inflation upward
• Against a generally upbeat outlook are an array of risks

PDF: Public Summary  -- Funniest Quote: “Policy shifts by President Trump and the Republican Congress could disrupt health care, government employment, and public services. Shifts in the tax law or public spending could also have positive effects, although they might aggravate long-term budget challenges.”  (Political bias as an economic forecasting tool! Sometimes you just have to stop and take a moment to laugh at these people.)

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