RATING FOR HAWAII’S CD-1 RACE CHANGED FROM  “LEAN DEM” TO “TOSS UP” BY KEY ELECTION ANALYSIS GROUP

Non-partisan group cites Djou campaign activities, television ads in reclassification

From www.Djou.com

The Cook Political Report, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, updated their status of the Hawaii special election for Congressional District 1 this morning, changing the race form “Likely Democrat” to “Toss-Up.” Charles Djou’s first television ad hit airwaves this week and he officially filed his nomination papers surrounded by dozens of supporters this week.  The Cook Report cites the ads as part of the reclassification from “Lean Dem” to “Toss Up” in just seven days.

“The national attention our campaign has received is invigorating, particularly for those in Hawaii who want to see independent leadership and fiscal responsibility in Washington,” said Djou.  “I am looking forward to continuing my campaign efforts with the support of my fantastic volunteers and campaign staff and will continue to remind voters that a vote for me is a vote for lower taxes and responsible government spending.”

Ballots for the all-mail May 22 Special Election will be sent out on April 30.  Charles K. Djou is a law professor and Army Reserve officer, currently serves on the Honolulu City Council and previously served as the Minority Floor Leader in the State House.

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Full Text of The Cook Political Report Update:

Thu Mar 18 12:15:57 CDT 2010

HI-01 Special Election: Three-Way Fight is a Toss Up

Race: 2010 House - HI-01

The Cook Political Report has published a Race Update for this race. The text of the update follows:

March 18, 2010: HI-01 Special Election: Three-Way Fight is a Toss Up

As we noted in last week’s Hawaii rundown, the unique winner-take-all rules of the all-mail special election race to fill the seat of gubernatorial candidate Rep. Neil Abercrombie (HI-01) create a low hurdle for Republican Honolulu Councilman Charles Djou to clear in a race against two Democrats. Now, there is genuine concern among Democrats that while Djou is up on air with appealing intro ads that don’t mention his party affiliation, neither state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa nor former Rep. Ed Case are running great campaigns. Case may enjoy an early lead, but he also has the least money. Furthermore, Democratic Sens. Daniel Inouye and Daniel Akaka will do all they can to ensure Hanabusa overtakes Case, their longstanding rival.

Were Djou to shoot the gap and win – possibly with as little as 35 to 40 percent of the vote – he would be the underdog to hold this seat for the GOP in the more normal November election. But the winner-take-all special election has the makings of a genuinely competitive three-way race, and President Obama’s 70 percent share of the vote here – this is his native seat – belies this district’s willingness to vote for the right kind of Republican. Hawaii voters will mail in ballots between April 30th and May 22nd, and this seat joins the May 18th special election in PA-12 in the Toss Up column.

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