by Andrew Walden
This is what democracy looks like?
The Star-Advertiser/Ward Poll released Sunday January 17, 2016 gives Hawaii a glimpse of what the presidential horse-race might look like if Hawaii conducted a State-run Presidential Primary as many other states do.
But Hawaii doesn’t. Instead voters are invited to cast their ballots in the caucuses organized by the Republican and Democratic parties. Party-organized caucuses normally attract only about 1-2% of the registered electorate—1/20th of the turnout for Hawaii’s State-run August, 2014 Primary which attracted 41.5% of registered voters.
The Hawaii Republican Presidential Caucus is to be held at 44 locations statewide Tuesday, March 8 from 6pm to 8pm. The result will determine the allocation of 16 of Hawaii’s 19 delegates to the Republican National Convention to be held July 18-21 in Cleveland, Ohio.
Hawaii Democrats are set to caucus Saturday March 26 (locations not yet announced) and vote in a ‘Presidential Preference Poll’ which will determine the mandate of a few of Hawaii’s 34 delegates to the July 25-28 Democrat National Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Hawaii lacks party-identification of registered voters, a circumstance which aids the maintenance of the one-party Democrat-controlled status quo. If they were participating in the caucuses—which most respondents will not--self-described Democrats would vote:
- 52% -- Clinton
- 18% – Sanders
- 6% – Trump
- 8% -- Other Republicans
- 1% – Will not vote
- 15% -- Other/refused
Self-identified Republicans would vote:
- 22% -- Trump
- 11% – Cruz
- 11% -- Clinton
- 9% – Bush
- 9% – Carson
- 8% – Rubio
- 4% – Christie
- 4% -- Sanders
- 1% -- Will not vote
- 19% – Refused/Other
Because Caucus turnout is such a small percentage of the electorate—comprised of more highly motivated and partisan voters--refined numbers can be attained by stripping out party-crossing results and refusals.
The result among Democrats:
- 74% – Clinton
- 26% – Sanders
The result among Republicans:
- 34% – Trump
- 17% – Cruz
- 14% – Bush
- 14% – Carson
- 13% – Rubio
- 6% – Christie
- 2% – Fiorina
Of course all of these numbers will shift dramatically as the results come in from Iowa, New Hampshire and other early states.
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SA: Clinton enjoys large lead in Hawaii presidential poll
PDF: Hawaii Poll — Presidential Race
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