Measuring Housing Demand in Hawaii, 2015-2025

Executive Summary

From DBEDT Research and Economic Analysis Division, April, 2015

The goal of this report is to quantify long-range housing demand in Hawaii for the 2015-2025 period. Housing demand projections in this report are designed to show how long-run sustainable demand for housing will develop in Hawaii over the ten year period.

The model presented in this study projects housing demand for the period of 2015 to 2025 using the variables of projected population growth, visitor growth, and vacancy rates. It is important to note that Hawaii's housing supply is not included in this study. Housing supply is impacted by factors including the supply of land available for development, financing for residential projects, and the permitting process, which are outside of the model used in this study. A complete analysis of Hawaii's housing market should take into account the housing shortage or surplus prior to 2015, in addition to our housing demand projection.

Assumptions for the two main components that influence demand for new housing include the following:

1. The number of new households that will be formed in the state – how many more people will need places to live in the state by 2025; and,

2. The number of vacant housing units in the state and the rate of change – how many additional housing units will be needed to support a healthy market turnover.

Our projections for housing demand are based on the current economic and demographic trends and assumptions about how these trends will drive demand for new housing units. The forecast projects demand for an additional 64,693 to 65,991 housing units, during the 2015-2025 period.

In looking at the counties, prior research has found that the population of the neighbor islands is projected to grow significantly faster than that of Honolulu. This affects household formation, which is central to assessing housing demand. By 2025, Hawaii County’s population will grow by 29 percent, Maui County’s by 25 percent, and Kauai County will grow by 19 percent. In contrast to strong growth for the neighbor islands, the population in Honolulu County is projected to grow by only 8 percent.

The forecasted demand for additional housing units by county is 25,847 units for Honolulu, 19,610 for Hawaii, 13,949 for Maui, and 5,287 for Kauai during the 2015-2025 period.

The continued decline in the number of younger households will also influence housing demand. The number of older households is expected to continue increasing, as life expectancy increases in the state on average. These demographic trends will affect demand and choice of housing....

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