Larry Sabato's Crystal ball

September 11, 2014 (excerpt)

Hawaii: While unpopular Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) might have been in serious trouble in the general election, state Sen. David Ige (D) crushed the incumbent in a record-setting primary win.

What is Ige’s most important attribute in his matchup with former Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R)? His party label, in a very Democratic state.

Although former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, an ex-Democrat running as an independent, complicates the race to some degree, Hannemann’s candidacy loses some of its raison d’être with Abercrombie out of the picture.

With the relatively undefined Ige as the Democratic nominee, the state seems more likely to stick to its partisan guns, making Aiona at least a slight underdog at this point in the campaign. In light of this, we’re shifting this contest from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

Still, this won’t be a cakewalk for Democrats, and the flush-with-cash Republican Governors Association could intervene here in a big way, forcing the Democratic Governors Association to counter.

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