Long Odds for Most Senate Primary Challenges

LS: ...Currently, we only have three primary races featuring incumbents running for re-nomination where the incumbent is not at least rated “likely” to win: Hawaii’s Democratic primary and the Republican primaries in Mississippi and South Carolina....

HAWAII (D): Appointed Sen. Brian Schatz (D) just outraised Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D) again –$705,000 to $455,000 in the fourth quarter — and seems to be running the more complete campaign. There’s plenty of time to go before the Aug. 9 primary, but we think Schatz is at least a slight favorite to win the primary at this point. Given that, we’re rating the Democratic primary as LEANS SCHATZ, with the winner in the Democratic tilt likely to also be victorious in the general election. Ex-Rep. Charles Djou (R), a credible Republican candidate, is mentioned as a possible general election challenger, but he has yet to actually enter the race.

Read ... Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball