Hanalei vs Omidyar: 6PM Tonight
VIDEO: NRA President speaks in Hilo
Milner: Why PRP’s Mayoral Campaign Is the Wave of the Future
Milner: Pacific Resource Partnership's $3 million ad campaign against Ben Cayetano is the wave of the future in Hawaii politics because it was so effective. Effectiveness, not ethics, determines what kinds of campaigns candidates decide to run.
Like the 2012 Obama campaign, PRP created a master narrative about Ben Cayetano that effectively targeted two groups of key voters, those who only voted in the general election and strong Democrats who had voted for Cayetano in the primary. It did this by following the lead of cutting edge campaign strategies, the gold standard of which were Barack Obama’s strategies in both the 2008 and 2012 Presidential races.
To understand this, we need to rid ourselves of longstanding conceits and myths about the role of negative campaigns in Hawaii….
PRP’s success was not based on the power of a bully. It was based on the power of a story. People’s political judgments are based on what psychologist Jon Haidt in his remarkable book "The Righteous Mind" calls “quick intuitive flashes” rather than on a reflective, rational assessment process. Negative ads, just like positive ones, are effective when they tap into this intuitive process….
Effective politicians — stop and think about the ones you support and the ones that you think run fair campaigns — create a narrative that is one-sided. In fact you like it precisely because it is one-sided. It reinforces your core beliefs and values….
…the infamous Hannemann “Compare and Decide” mailer was ineffective, not because it was negative. It was ineffective because it was lousy….
The October Civil Beat mayoral poll showed that people who were still undecided were less likely to see rail as the key issue.
In the general election, PRP targeted late deciders by filling the airwaves and mailboxes with ads because, as research has shown and as any good ad person will tell you, repetition works, especially among those who have not yet committed to a candidate. Such voters need repeated reminders. PRP’s anti-Cayetano character and competence ads were more likely to appeal to late deciders who were less committed to positions on specific policies like rail and more committed to concerns of character and competence.
The PRP ad campaign adjusted to the new electorate in another way. It targeted those who had already made up their minds. Once people have decided on a preference, it is very hard to get them to change. In fact campaigns typically devote only a small part of their resources to this.
HR: Slater: Hawaii's Entire Political Establishment Succeeds Against Ben Cayetano
read … This and then read the next article
Gay Marriage Led to Defeat of Marilyn Lee, Jake Bradshaw
Hawaii Family Advocates, the non-profit and tax-exempt legislative action arm of Hawaii Family Forum, paid for at least five mailers that targeted Lee for defeat.
"Unfortunately, Marilyn Lee is not interested in defending our religious freedoms," said one mailer. "Please remember that when casting your vote for State Representative."
Among other issues, the mailers are critical of what the forum says is Lee's support for same-sex civil unions, requiring religious hospitals to provide "abortion pills" and for not speaking out against the state Senate's putting an end to opening prayers.
"I feel my good name in the community has kind of been destroyed by all this," said Lee….
Lee, 72, who has lived in Mililani for 32 years, said, "I have never been targeted like this before."
Lee had a razor-thin victory in 2010 over Republican Shawn Kawakami, winning by just 16 votes. Civil unions, which was passed by the Hawaii Legislature in 2010 only to be vetoed by GOP Gov. Linda Lingle was an issue in the campaign.
"The churches were very much involved," Lee said of the 2010 race. "And this time it was about civil unions too but really unusually harsh. It's kinda scary. I am Episcopalian, and that is Christian, but they are not recognizing that because we accept gay marriage."
One mailer states: "Our values matter. Marilyn Lee does not support them. Fortunately, Beth Fukumoto does."
Civil unions, which became law under Democrat Gov. Neil Abercrombie this January, remains an issue, seen as a gateway to same-sex marriage.
Another mailer states, "Marilyn Lee is endorsed and supported by several organizations whose top priority is legalizing same sex marriage in Hawaii during the next legislative session."
A third mailer states that most of Lee's campaign contributions came from political action committees, or "special interests groups."
Lee's most recent filing does include a lot of contributions from PACs (and she still lost)
read … and the gay-atheists are not happy
Mainland Homosexuals, Billionaires Announce Plan to Impose Gay Marriage on Hawaii
AP: PORTLAND, Maine » Elated by their first ballot victories, in four states, advocates of same-sex marriage rights plan to push legislatures in half a dozen more states toward legalization as they also press their cause in federal courts. They are also preparing for what they hope will be another milestone: the electoral reversal of a constitutional amendment defining marriage as solely between a man and a woman, in Oregon in 2014.
Nine states and Washington, D.C., have legalized same-sex marriage. Although it remains unpopular in the South, rights campaigners see the potential for legislative gains in Delaware; Hawaii; Illinois; Rhode Island; Minnesota, where they beat back a restrictive amendment last Tuesday; and New Jersey, where Gov. Chris Christie vetoed a bill to legalize same-sex marriage in February.
Related: The Overhauling of Straight America (Read this, then read the rest of the AP article to observe the strategies in action.)
Hawaii Family Forum: Gay Marriage on Legislative Agenda
read … Overhauling
Suicide Squad Admits to Four Counts of Conspiracy to Commit Manslaughter
KITV: It's our position that aid in dying is legal and it can be incorporated into medical practice legitimately here in Hawaii," said Barbara Coombs Lee, who is the president of Compassion and Choices, a national non-profit organization that supports aid in dying. She returned to Hawaii in early November, one year after a small group of Hawaii doctors first prescribed life-ending medication to a terminally ill patient.
"Hawaii has a constellation of laws that have never really criminalize aid in dying," she said.
She said in the past year, 31 people have inquired about aid in dying, seven qualified to receive medication, and four were actually prescribed it, but she said all four died of natural causes before taking that prescription.
What opponents call assisted suicide is legal in three states: Oregon, Washington and Montana. Massachusetts included it on the ballot in 2012, but voters shot it down. Hawaii's attorney general said he considers it manslaughter, but has yet to prosecute any physicians in the state.
"There has never been in the history of the United States a physician who has been successfully prosecuted for providing a terminally ill, mentally competent person with medication that they could take to die," said Coombs Lee.
HFP: Meet the Insurance Executive Behind Assisted Suicide in Hawaii
HFP: Colette Machado: I look at Kalaupapa--Native Hawaiians will fight against Assisted Suicide
read … Saving Insurance Companies Money
Republicans are wild cards in forming House coalitions
Borreca: …one dissident Democrat, speaking anonymously, said the Republicans are talking with Say's group. That was partially noted by Democratic Party Chairman Dante Carpenter, who reports hearing the same rumor and is attempting to disabuse Democrats of any talk of coalitions.
"I have heard some of the whispering. The perception is that either side could be wooing a coalition," says Carpenter.
But Say reports there have been no discussions, although he acknowledges hearing the rumors.
"Right now it is all rumor. I have not talked to the Republicans," Say said….
read … Wild Cards
Progressives Chatter About Say vs Souki
NikkiHeat: Mizuno has always sided with the winning side so he must sense a shift in fortunes- heard he wanted to be Vice Speaker so I guess Speaker Say will have two Vice Speakers….
NikkiHeat: With a “SuperMajority” of the House, shouldn’t the Democrats be able to organize without relying on the GOP? And how will the Purity Police in the Democratic Party view cutting a deal with GOP to secure power in the House? For all of Johansen’s virtues (young, smart, statesmanlike, careful in speech) vs Ward, he comes from spending time in W’s regime.
Calvin Say might be interested in maintaining his hold on power — his only legacy appears to be to have outlasted every other post-Statehood Speaker’s tenure– but surely he’s not willing to put his titular leadership of the Democratic Party during the Lingle interregnum would preclude any deal with the GOP making Hawaii Democrats the laughingstock of the nation– that internal bickering makes a powerless Hawaii GOP minority relevant – what will Calvin or his opponents give up in order to secure GOP support to organize the House?
read … Heat or Love
Akaka To Push for Akaka Bill in Lame Duck Session
ICT: The Budget Control Act – the legislation that requires the massive budget cuts called sequestration – will set the tone for the lame duck session, Tuell said. But the SCIA will focus on passing the Native Hawaiian Government Reorganization Act – “an issue close to the chairman’s heart,” Tuell said – the Indian Reorganization Act amendment and other bills that are important to Indian country.
NJ: The Absence of an Akaka: Quorum Calls Won't Be the Same
Read … Akaka Bill
Conklin: For Opponents of Akaka Bill, Silver Lining in Election Clouds
HR: … the U.S. Senate, which Republicans had hoped to dominate, will have only 45 Republicans facing 53 Democrats and two independents (who will probably caucus with the Democrats).
The silver lining is that the Republicans can block the Akaka bill as they've been doing for many years, and it takes 60 votes for cloture to force the bill past a hold or filibuster.
The silver lining is tarnished by the fact that the Democrats have always been unanimous in supporting the Akaka bill, and that a few left-leaning Republicans have crossed over to vote with them. Only 5 Republican crossovers would now be needed.
The tarnish is somewhat polished away by the fact that a couple of the Republicans who are now gone either supported the Akaka bill or were not reliable opponents of it, so their replacement by Democrats poses no additional threat to the Akaka bill.
Another silver lining is the fact that the most stalwart opponent of the Akaka bill, Arizona Senator Jon Kyl, who is retiring, has been replaced by Republican Jeff Flake, who has an excellent track record of leading the opposition to the Akaka bill as a member of the House of Representatives.
A small cloud is that the Senator who won the Hawaii election to replace retiring Democrat Dan Akaka is Democrat Mazie Hirono. She pushed the Akaka bill as a member of the House of Representatives and has pledged to continue pushing it as a Senator.
Part of the silver lining is that Senator Hirono will be an ineffective back-bencher. She's an arrogant far-left machine Democrat, whose work in the House of Representatives and whose previous political activity in Hawaii show that she is incapable of thinking or speaking more deeply than superficial Democrat talking-points.
A major silver lining is the fact that Republican candidate Linda Lingle lost, and by the landslide margin of 62%-37%. Yes, this is good news. Throughout her 8 years as Governor, Lingle made the Akaka bill her top federal priority. She constantly contacted the Republican President and Republican Senators to lobby for the Akaka bill. She made numerous trips to Washington, twice testifying before the Committee on Indian Affairs, personally meeting Senators on the floor during quorum calls, spending an overnight in the White House while lobbying President Bush, etc.
Lingle's loss is a silver lining because Lingle will not be in the Senate working tirelessly inside the Republican caucus to persuade her fellow Republicans to abandon their opposition to the Akaka bill. Lingle's defeat is also a silver lining because her credibility among national Republicans is greatly reduced by her landslide defeat -- they wasted millions of dollars they sent to help her campaign, on account of her persuading them that she could actually win. Her greatly reduced credibility among Republicans means that she will not succeed in persuading them to stop blocking the Akaka bill….
The silver lining is that Keli'i Akina, Ph.D., placed third out of six candidates for the at-large seat. Dr. Akina is an opponent of the Akaka bill, and an opponent of the race-based state-recognized Akaka tribe. This was his first run for office, so it shows great strength that he placed third out of six candidates, ahead of the (in)famous radical activist Walter Ritte, and behind only two very well-known opponents Haunani Apoliona (who has served on the OHA board for 20 years and was its chair for 10, and who outspent him 4-1) and Cal Lee (well-known highly popular football coach who outspent him 2-1). Perhaps Dr. Akina will try again in 2014. There will be five OHA seats up for election: three of them are at-large in a consolidated contest where the top three vote-getters will win, and another one is the O'ahu seat for which he would also be eligible.
read … Silver Lining
Hawaii Teachers Union Ramps Up Protests Amid Contract Stalemate
CB: The Hawaii State Teachers Association is mobilizing its 13,000 members this week to publicly pressure the state to resolve the protracted dispute over their next two-year contract.
The union has created a new website, ramped up its social media advocacy and planned two protests for November. …
The first so-called "work-to-rule" protest is set for Thursday, the day after contract negotiations are supposed to restart. Campbell High School and Iroquois Point Elementary educators plan to wave signs as part of the demonstration, which involves teachers only working the hours specified in their contract, 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. Another protest is planned for Nov. 29.
The union's new Facebook page, Hawaii Teachers Work To The Rules, highlights all the things teachers do outside of their contracted work hours: coaching, leading clubs, grading papers, attending some meetings or doing lesson plans. All that could stop on protest days.
Dozens of teachers have commented on the recent spate of posts on HSTA's Facebook pages. Most back the union's efforts, calling for more protests with all schools participating….
Related: HSTA Launches 'Work to Rule' Protest
read … Work to Rule
Homeless Shelters reportedly take in more kids, seniors
SA: About 8,500 people statewide stayed in homeless shelters in the 2011-12 fiscal year, up 11 percent from 2009-10, and their ranks included more of the very young, more senior citizens and more people with at least some college experience, according to a statewide report on homelessness to be released today.
At the same time, the number of people who needed homeless outreach services — most of whom were unsheltered — dropped by more than 460 people compared with the 2010-11 fiscal year, to 7,804.
read … Shelters reportedly take in more kids, seniors
Liquid natural gas can be good option
SA: Hawaii Gas, formerly known as The Gas Co., is asking the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to approve that path so it can begin shipping natural gas, in liquid form, in refrigerated tanks later this year from the West Coast. It would be converted back to its gaseous form at Honolulu Harbor's Pier 38 near Nimitz Highway and injected into its existing Hawaii pipeline.
State Department of Transportation concerns have focused on the facility's proximity to vehicles on Nimitz and on the roadway that runs through the adjacent Domestic Commercial Fishing Village. However, a company attorney said company officials have met with the department and satisfied those concerns. If these and other safety concerns about transport and regasification are adequately resolved, LNG deserves a niche here.
Hawaii residents paid 34.7 cents a kilowatt hour last year for electricity, 80 percent of which is produced by burning oil. Coal and natural gas power homes on the mainland, and the national average is 11.8 cents a kilowatt hour….
Hawaii now is the only state without a natural-gas-fueled power plant.
(Representing solar and wind scammers) The Blue Planet Foundation and the national office of the Sierra Club oppose the Hawaii Gas plan because of concern that it would run counter to the state's push to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel. However, we see the use of natural gas as providing a supplemental, cheaper option for today's and near-term needs, not as a disruption of the state's push to increase the use of renewable energy sources.
Hawaiian Electric Co. (also tied to solar and wind scammers) has been fairly quiet about the Hawaii Gas plan, a spokesman saying, "The use of natural gas for a fuel is a state policy decision." HECO should be prepared for a time when natural gas could be integrated into its power plants.
Electricity has long been absurdly expensive in Hawaii and has been getting worse. Hawaii customers spent $3.15 billion on electricity last year — 5.3 percent of the state's gross domestic product, up from $1.17 billion, or 2.4 percent of the state's GDP, in 1997. That trend should be turned around by the use of cheaper fossil fuels as well as local renewable sources.
read … LNG
US Chamber Lost 13 of 15 Senate Races
WP: The day after an election in which the U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent millions of dollars backing losing Republican candidates, executives began the brutal process of assessing what went wrong at the nation’s leading business organization.
The Chamber spent nearly $24 million to defeat several high-
profile Democratic Senate candidates, including Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, former governor Timothy M. Kaine in Virginia and Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. But out of 15 Senate races where the business organization put down money, only two went the Chamber’s way.
KHON: Lingle spent the most per vote, while Crowley spent the least
read … Chamber
DLNR Shuts Down all Kayak Rentals at Kealakekua Bay
KB: Hawaii State has pulled the permits of kayaking companies in Kealakekua Bay and is considering shutting down all activities on the bay.
read … Tourism
Rand Paul: Path to Citizenship for Illegals
POLITICO: In an interview with POLITICO, Paul said he’ll return to Congress this week pushing measures long avoided by his party. He wants to work with liberal Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy and Republicans to eliminate mandatory minimum sentences for pot possession. He wants to carve a compromise immigration plan with an “eventual path” to citizenship for illegal immigrants, a proposal he believes could be palatable to conservatives. And he believes his ideas — along with pushing for less U.S. military intervention in conflicts overseas — could help the GOP broaden its tent and appeal to crucial voting blocs that handed Democrats big wins in the West Coast, the Northeast and along the Great Lakes.
read … Welcome to the Rand Paul evolution
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