The effects of COVID-19 vaccine mandates in Hawai‘i

From UHERO, January 6, 2022

Having been affected by the highest increase in COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic, Honolulu and Maui counties in Hawai‘i implemented vaccine passport mandates for select industries in September 2021.

Herein, we describe the effects of these mandates on three areas:

(1) changes in foot traffic for businesses affected by mandates in comparison to businesses unaffected by the mandates;

(2) changes in the number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 and

(3) COVID-19 vaccination rate increases across counties affected by mandates in comparison to counties that were unaffected by the mandates.

Although businesses affected by mandates experienced a 4.0% decrease of foot traffic in the 10 weeks after the mandates were implemented, the number of COVID-19 cases significantly decreased (47.3%, p < 0.01), and the vaccination rate significantly increased (1.47%, p < 0.05) in counties that implemented mandates.

As the trend of foot traffic towards the end of this period indicates impacted businesses converging towards the levels of non-impacted businesses, the trade-off in temporary losses during the adjustment period is met with significant gains in public health and safety.

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