Sunday, December 4, 2022
Hawai'i Free Press

Current Articles | Archives

Friday, March 5, 2021
UHERO: Recovery Poised to Accelerate
By UHERO @ 7:00 AM :: 2152 Views :: Economy, Tourism, COVID-19

UHERO: More Substantial recovery in sight

From UHERO, March 5, 2021

Hawaii is struggling to emerge from the severe COVID-19 downturn, but the recovery is poised to accelerate. Falling virus counts and vaccination progress set the stage for a strengthening visitor industry recovery as the year progresses, as well as growth in the broader local economy. Business failures and economic damage to lower-income households will continue to be burdens, and full recovery to pre-pandemic employment remains several years down the road. Exceptional uncertainty continues to surround our forecasts for Hawaii.

• US economic recovery stalled out late in the year as COVID-19 cases surged, but the economy is poised for a robust rebound as vaccination becomes widespread. The largest federal fiscal support on record and an accommodative Federal Reserve continue to be essential supports. Abroad, prospects for rich countries—who have locked up most of the world’s vaccine this year—are much better than for developing countries. For all countries, the speed of vaccination relative to contagious new COVID-19 variants will be key in recovery.

• Hawaii has managed the COVID-19 pandemic better than many, if not all, other states. This reflects Hawaii’s ability to almost completely shut itself off in the early stages of the pandemic, but we were also successful in tamping down a summer surge. After a holiday pickup, virus numbers have trended downward to their lowest level since July. Hawaii is also among the states furthest along in vaccination, priming the economy for renewed growth.

• Hawaii’s Safe Travels program has allowed the visitor industry to make a partial recovery, while keeping COVID-19 cases at bay. But visitor numbers remain far below pre-pandemic levels. As case counts fall and vaccination rates rise, US tourism will pick up speed as we approach the summer and fall months. International markets will lag. In our baseline forecast, arrivals recover half their pandemic losses by July, and visitor spending recovers nearly 70% of its losses by year end. Full recovery is still several years out.

• Vaccination progress will also allow a broader reopening of the local economy. At the same time, the accrued damage to local firms has been extensive, particularly in the most-affected areas of tourism and other face-to-face services. Surveys indicate a large number of firms fear failure in coming months. While the unemployment rate has receded, the payroll job base remained 16% below pre-pandemic levels in December. We expect an accelerating pace of job recovery as the year progresses.

• The crisis has had a disparate effect on high- and low-income households. Professional workers have been able to continue to work remotely, while many lower-income households are dependent on the face-to-face services that have been hardest hit. This has led to disproportionate economic hardship for these families. Income and housing support programs have been crucial in preventing economic collapse for some families and communities.

• There remains an exceptional level of uncertainty about the path forward, which will depend on COVID-19 control, an end to social distancing, the extent of business failures, and the travel and spending response of consumers. In an optimistic scenario, broad vaccine coverage by summer in the US and major international markets, and a spending surge driven by fiscal stimulus and pent-up demand, would fuel a more-robust tourism and local recovery. Slower-than-expected vaccination progress and resurgent case counts could lead to poorer recovery progress. Business failures and damage to household balance sheets and employment prospects could weigh more heavily on the economy. In such a pessimistic scenario, overall economic recovery would be more delayed and much less robust.

First Quarter Hawaii Forecast

With the COVID-19 vaccination roll-out building and case counts in decline, tourism is positioned to begin a more significant recovery this year. And this also sets the stage for a more rapid re-opening of locally-focused businesses. Pent-up demand after a year stuck at home will support recovery, as will the massive federal fiscal package now in the works. At the same time, Hawaii’s reliance on service sectors means our recovery will be more attenuated than that of many other states, and there continues to be an exceptional level of uncertainty, both to the upside but especially the downside.

read … Full Report  

PBN: Hawaii recovery 'poised to accelerate' from Covid, UHERO forecasts 

HPR: UHERO Forecast 'Sort Of More Optimistic,' But Is Based On Several Factors

Links

TEXT "follow HawaiiFreePress" to 40404

Register to Vote

2aHawaii

808 Silent Majority

ACA Signups Hawaii

Alliance Defending Freedom

Aloha Pregnancy Care Center

American Council of Trustees and Alumni

AntiPlanner

Antonio Gramsci Reading List

A Place for Women in Waipio

Astronomy Hawaii

Back da Blue Hawaii

Ballotpedia Hawaii

Better Hawaii

Broken Trust

Build More Hawaiian Homes Working Group

ChinaTownWatch.com

Christian Homeschoolers of Hawaii

Cliff Slater's Second Opinion

DVids Hawaii

FIRE

Fix Oahu!

Frontline: The Fixers

Genetic Literacy Project

Grassroot Institute

Habele.org

Hawaii Aquarium Fish Report

Hawaii Aviation Preservation Society

Hawaii Catholic TV

Hawaii Christian Coalition

Hawaii Cigar Association

Hawaii Coalition Against Legalized Gambling

Hawaii ConCon Info

Hawaii Credit Union Watch

Hawaii Crop Improvement Association

Hawaii Debt Clock

Hawaii Defense Foundation

Hawaii Family Forum

Hawaii Farmers and Ranchers United

Hawaii Farmer's Daughter

Hawaii Federalist Society

Hawaii Federation of Republican Women

Hawaii Future Project

Hawaii Gathering of Eagles

Hawaii History Blog

Hawaii Homeschool Association

Hawaii Jihadi Trial

Hawaii Legal News

Hawaii Legal Short-Term Rental Alliance

Hawaii Matters

Hawaii's Partnership for Appropriate & Compassionate Care

Hawaii Public Charter School Network

Hawaii Rifle Association

Hawaii Shippers Council

Hawaii Smokers Alliance

Hawaii State Data Lab

Hawaii Together

HIEC.Coop

HiFiCo

Hiram Fong Papers

Homeschool Legal Defense Hawaii

Honolulu Navy League

Honolulu Traffic

House Minority Blog

Imua TMT

Inouye-Kwock, NYT 1992

Inside the Nature Conservancy

Inverse Condemnation

Investigative Project on Terrorism

July 4 in Hawaii

Kakaako Cares

Keep Hawaii's Heroes

Land and Power in Hawaii

Legislative Committee Analysis Tool

Lessons in Firearm Education

Lingle Years

Malulani Foundation

Managed Care Matters -- Hawaii

Malama Pregnancy Center of Maui

MentalIllnessPolicy.org

Military Home Educators' Network Oahu

Missile Defense Advocacy

MIS Veterans Hawaii

NAMI Hawaii

Natatorium.org

National Christian Foundation Hawaii

National Parents Org Hawaii

NFIB Hawaii News

No GMO Means No Aloha

Not Dead Yet, Hawaii

NRA-ILA Hawaii

Oahu Alternative Transport

Obookiah

OHA Lies

Opt Out Today

OurFutureHawaii.com

Patients Rights Council Hawaii

PEACE Hawaii

People vs Machine

Pritchett Cartoons

Pro-GMO Hawaii

P.U.E.O.

RailRipoff.com

Rental by Owner Awareness Assn

ReRoute the Rail

Research Institute for Hawaii USA

Rick Hamada Show

RJ Rummel

Robotics Organizing Committee

Save Dillingham Airfield

School Choice in Hawaii

SenatorFong.com

Sink the Jones Act

Statehood for Guam

Talking Tax

Tax Foundation of Hawaii

The Real Hanabusa

Time Out Honolulu

Trustee Akina KWO Columns

UCC Truths

US Tax Foundation Hawaii Info

VAREP Honolulu

Waagey.org

West Maui Taxpayers Association

What Natalie Thinks

Whole Life Hawaii

Yes2TMT